6 ESSENTIAL FALL MAINTENANCE TASKS

General Robyn McLean 10 Sep

Some excellent advice from my friends at Pillar to Post!

With autumn just around the corner, now is the perfect time for homeowners to get their property in shape and help avoid problems in the months ahead. Here are six key jobs to tackle before cold weather sets in.
  1. Caulk around exterior door and window frames for a tight seal. Look for gaps where pipes or wiring enter the home and caulk those as well. Not only does heat escape from these openings, but water can enter and damage underlying materials, and even cause structural damage.
  2. Check the roof for missing or damaged shingles. Water, wind, ice and snow can cause serious damage to a vulnerable roof, leading to a greater chance of further damage inside the home. Always have a qualified professional inspect and repair the roof, but binoculars can be used to do a preliminary survey from the ground.
  3. Clear gutters of leaves, sticks, and other debris. If the home gets heavy leaf fall, this may need to be done more than once during the season. If the gutters can accommodate them, leaf guards can be real time-savers and prevent clogging. Check the joints between sections of the gutter, as well as between the gutter and downspouts, and make any necessary adjustments or repairs. Make sure downspouts direct water away from the house.
  4. In cold-weather climates, garden hoses should be drained and stored indoors to protect them from the harsh winter elements. Shut off outdoor faucets and make sure exterior pipes are drained of water. Faucets and pipes can easily freeze and burst, causing leaks and increasing the potential for serious water damage.
  5. Have the furnace inspected to ensure that it’s safe and in good working order. Most utility companies will provide basic, no-cost furnace inspections to their customers, but schedule early as there can often be a long waiting list as the weather cools down. Replace disposable furnace air filters or clean the permanent type according to the manufacturer’s instructions. Using a clean filter not only helps with interior air quality, it will help the furnace run more efficiently, saving money and energy.
  6. A wood-burning fireplace can be a real pleasure on a chilly fall evening. For safety, have the firebox and chimney professionally cleaned before use this season. Creosote, a byproduct of wood burning, can build up to dangerous levels and cause a chimney fire that can spread to the rest of the house.
With these easy steps, you can enjoy the comforts of home all season long and know that you’re protecting your investment, too.

Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate Steady Amid Uncertainty

General Robyn McLean 4 Sep

Some great insight on the recent Bank of Canada hold on interest rates from DLC’s Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist.

The Bank of Canada held the target overnight rate at steady at 1.75% for the seventh consecutive decision date but will monitor closely the impact of the US-China trade war on economic activity around the world and in Canada. The second-quarter growth–posted at 3.7%–exceeded the Bank’s forecast in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), but the Bank expects the economy to slow from that pace in the second half of the year.

Q2 was boosted by stronger energy production and robust export growth, both recovering from a weak Q1 performance. But evidence suggests that export growth slowed in July and could weaken further as the global economy slows. Canada bears the brunt of Chinese trade restrictions on Canadian agricultural imports. Housing activity also boosted the expansion in the second quarter as resales and housing starts picked up. Falling longer-term interest rates have driven down mortgage rates. The Bank asserted that “this could add to already-high household debt levels, although mortgage underwriting rules should help to contain the buildup of vulnerabilities.”

Wages picked up further last quarter, boosting labour income, yet consumption spending was unexpectedly soft. Canadian consumer confidence recorded its most significant monthly drop this year in August amid growing concerns about the global economic outlook. The setback reflects waning optimism about Canada’s economy and effectively reverses the pick-up in sentiment earlier this summer.

The deterioration in confidence coincides with the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war. Many Canadians increasingly worried they’ll soon feel a bigger impact. Consumers aren’t the only ones feeling the uncertainty as business investment weakened sharply in the second quarter. Trade tensions have hit farmers and manufacturers hardest. The U.S. implemented additional tariffs on China September 1 and have slated more on December 15. These include duties on clothing and electronics, will pinch US consumers where it hurts, in the pocketbooks. These moves will sideswipe Canada.

Despite all of this gloom, the central bank held off from signalling explicitly any immediate need to cut interest rates. While growth has been stronger than expected, inflation has remained on target.

“In sum, Canada’s economy is operating close to potential and inflation is on target. However, escalating trade conflicts and related uncertainty are taking a toll on the global and Canadian economies,” the central bank said in its statement. “In this context, the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate.”

Market Interest Rates Are Tumbling

The Bank prefers to wait for more concrete evidence that the economy is in need of additional stimulus. Despite this, market interest rates have fallen to record lows in Canada and elsewhere and the yield curve is inverted. Government of Canada 5-year yields have slid from 1.85% to 1.15% this year, an incredible 38% decline. Ten-year returns are down from 1.92% to 1.13% (lower than the 5-year yield), and the 30-year bond yield has plunged from 2.13% to 1.40%.

Short-term interest rates are higher than longer-term yields. The overnight rate, controlled by the Bank of Canada, is 1.75%–well above all of these long-term yields. The 3-month bill rate is at 1.62%, almost 50 basis points higher than the 5-year yield.

The posted mortgage rate is the qualifying rate for mortgage borrowers. It has barely moved this year, down only 15 basis points to 5.19%. Its stickiness at elevated levels has prevented many borrowers from taking advantage of today’s low contract mortgage rates.

Mortgage Rates Have Fallen Even More Than Bond Yields

According to Rate Spy, the best high-ratio 5-year fixed mortgage rate is at 2.25%, down 94 basis points from the 3.24% rate posted at the beginning of the year. Conventional high-ratio 5-year fixed mortgage rates are down 95 bps and refinance 5-year fixed rates have fallen 118 bps. Much of this phenomenon might be lenders playing catch-up as they were slow to cut fixed rates when interest rates began to fall at the end of last year.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Where Can the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive Be Used in Canada?

General Robyn McLean 29 Aug

Good news for those looking to break into the Canadian housing market: the new federal First-Time Home Buyer Incentive (FTHBI) will officially be open for business as of September 2nd.

Designed to alleviate mortgage costs for first-time home buyers, the FTHBI will take a bite out of monthly payments by providing shared equity loans of 5% toward the down payment of a resale home, and 5% or 10% for newly-built homes. By boosting the size of buyers’ down payments, the FTHBI whittles down monthly mortgage costs, offering some relief on the costs of home ownership.

Who Can Use the FTHBI?

To qualify for the FTHBI, home buyers must satisfy the following:

  • At least one person in the household must be a first-time home buyer, meaning they have not owned a home, or dwelled in a home owned by their spouse, over the last four years. (An exception is made for buyers who’ve had a breakdown of marriage or common-law relationship.)
  • Buyers must have a minimum 5% down payment saved in order to qualify for an insured mortgage.
  • Buyers’ combined household income cannot exceed $120,000. This includes the income of any guarantors co-signing on the mortgage, as well as any rental income generated if part of the home is tenanted out.
  • The buyers’ Mortgage-to-Income Ratio (MTI) cannot exceed four times their income, including the portion that’s provided by the FTHBI. This means the maximum down payment for a resale home cannot exceed 14.99%, and 9.99% for a new build.

How Does the FTHBI Work?

The funds provided via the FTHBI are registered as a second mortgage, and don’t incur interest. This second mortgage must be paid back in full when the first insured mortgage matures at 25 years or when the home is sold, whichever comes first, though homeowners may pay it back as a lump sum early without penalty.

Because it is a shared equity mortgage, the amount to be paid back will fluctuate along with the value of the home over time: if the home’s assessed value rises, the loan repayment will increase by the same per cent. However, the same will occur if the home has lost value by the time it is sold or the mortgage matures.

Who Will Benefit from the FTHBI?

Since its big reveal in the March 2019 budget, the FTHBI has been the subject of debate; some mortgage experts point out that borrowers taking out a traditional mortgage would actually qualify for a larger loan based on more generous MTI criteria, while others argue that home buyers could be on the hook for a much larger loan repayment if they live in a particularly hot market where real estate prices are rising.

The largest points of contention are the FTHBI’s income and MTI caps; based on the criteria, a household earning the maximum income of $120,000 and making a 5% down payment would be limited to a resale home purchase price of $505,000 – an amount too low to have much traction in larger markets. For example, sold prices in Toronto and Vancouver were $806,755, and $967,314 in July, respectively.

FTHBI Could Be Used in 19 of 25 Markets

However, new analysis from Zoocasa reveals that the FTHBI may be an option in the majority of the nation’s major urban centres; a study of July 2019 average prices in 25 markets across the nation finds home buyers with the maximum income of $120,000 and a 5% down payment could feasibly qualify for the Incentive in 19 cities. These include markets in Eastern Canada, Quebec, and Prairies, as well as smaller urban centres in Ontario.

Not surprisingly, the six markets where the average home buyer would not qualify for the FTHBI include homes for sale in Toronto and several markets in its proximity in the Greater Golden Horseshoe such as Hamilton-Burlington and Kitchener-Waterloo, as well as in Greater Vancouver and neighbouring Victoria and Fraser Valley.

However, it’s important to note that the study’s calculations are based on average home prices and maximum incomes; home buyers’ ability to use the FTHBI in each city may range based on their income, size of their down payment, and the price of their desired home.

Check out the infographic below to see where the FTHBI may be most utilized in Canada’s major cities:

Source

Average home prices for July 2019 were sourced from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

The ups and downs of unemployment and interest rates

General Robyn McLean 12 Aug

Are interest rates headed for change? Some valuable insight from our friends at First National

Canadian employment took an unexpected hit in July and that has market watchers turning to the Bank of Canada to see if there will be a response.  There are a few forecasters predicting a rate cut by the bank in October, but they are in the minority at this time.

Economists will tell you that job numbers are notoriously hard to predict on a month by month basis, so it makes more sense to look at trends and long-term averages.

In July the Canadian economy shed 24,200 jobs, pushing the unemployment rate up 0.2% to 5.7% and marking the third straight month of softening employment numbers.  This follows several months of outsized growth.  Over the longer term, Canada has more than 350,000 new jobs, compared to a year earlier, most of them full time.

July’s increase in unemployment is also counter balanced by an increase in wage growth.  Working Canadians saw their hourly wage jump 4.5% on a year-over-year basis.

This is seen as an indication the labour market is finally starting to tighten up after a long period of economic growth.  Analysts also see this as a sign that economic growth may be about to flatten out.

The Bank of Canada is trying to balance its policies between good domestic growth and slowing economies in the U.S. and around the world.

So far those numbers do not add up to any rate moves, up or down.

Operation Home Ownership: From Renter to Homeowner

General Robyn McLean 6 Aug

A valuable outline from our friends at Planswell to help you reach your home ownership goals!

While it doesn’t always make sense for everyone, home ownership is often a financial goal for many Canadians. It can be the ideal setting to raise a family, build wealth in equity, or set yourself up for retirement.

A recent Globe and Mail feature shed some good news “that roughly three-quarters of Canadians live in communities where home ownership is affordable.” But no matter where you live or how much the average house price is, there are certain steps you need to work through on your journey to home ownership.

Before charging ahead, be honest with yourself if owning a home makes sense for your life goals and plans. If it does, then keep reading – we’ve broken it down in a step by step list for how to get you to your home ownership goal: 

Establish how much you can afford

Once you’ve decided that all of the responsibilities that come along with home ownership is the right direction for you, start by taking a hard look at your finances.

Make sure your credit score is in tip-top shape while you’re establishing how much you can afford. “Ensure your credit score is in tip top shape leading up to getting preapproved. No late payments, try to minimize the amount owing, don’t take out any new credit,” said Planswell Mortgages’ Samson Tella.

Do some market research and figure out where you want to live

Establishing how much you can afford may provide some direction when it comes to where you want to look. Every town and city is different, but they’ll all have areas that are considered more desirable and you’ll see that reflected in the price.

Our advice? Sometimes the greatest gem is hard to see at first. Be open to fixer-uppers that you can build into your dream home out of and you’ll often see a greater financial return over time.

Get pre-approved for a mortgage

Because you’ve been focused on maintaining a tip-top credit score since the time you started to establish what you can afford, the pre-approval process will be a lot smoother.

Another aspect to consider before you are in search of your pre-approval is the stability of your income. Don’t change careers when you’re looking to purchase a home. Lenders aren’t very friendly when looking at applicants that are still in that probationary period.

If you have a fluctuating income, a lender will want to look at a two-year running average so have your notice of assessments ready if you want to qualify for more than your base hours/salary. This includes OT/Bonuses/Car Allowances/Etc.

Don’t forget to disclose any additional factors that may help you get pre-approved. Have a lot of liquid assets? Have a cosigner? Have a side hustle that you claim on your taxes? Let your mortgage broker know. The clearer the picture your mortgage broker has, the stronger of a case they can make to get you approved for a mortgage that is right for you.

Establish your down payment

When it comes to down payments, minimums are required. You’ll need 5% of the purchase price for homes valued under $500,000 and 10% of the balance above $500,000 up to $1,000,000 purchase price. For homes with a purchase price over $1,000,000, you’ll need at the very least 20% down, if not more, depending on the lender.

How are you going to get there? Save, save, save

This is where a strict budget comes in handy. Try out our monthly budget calculator and try to be as strict with your spending as you can. Keep in mind that you have a goal you’re working towards, and you’re only going to get there by changing the way you’ve been doing things when it comes to your spending.

Once you have that down payment all ready and saved up, don’t be moving it around to different accounts – especially not locked in accounts like an RRSP. Sure, if you’re a first-time home buyer the RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan may be a fit for you, but there are many stipulations like the funds have to have been in the RRSP for at least 90 days. Check out this article to learn more about the ins and outs of the RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan.

Find that dream home (or as close to as possible!)

Now that you know how much you’re going to be putting down, and you have a target price you’re able to afford you can narrow in on where you can look for that dream home.

It’s often recommended not going to your maximum mortgage amount when you’re looking for your home. There are often things you forget when going from a renter to a home buyer: legal fees, property taxes, condo fees in some cases, water heater rentals, association fees… I could go on and on here.

Basically, don’t go crazy here – stay well within your budget to ensure that you’re not feeling stretched thin when it comes to all of the new expenses you’re about to incur with being a homeowner.

You can sometimes expect to pay 1.5% – 3.0% of the value of the home in other fees on the day of closing. This includes tax on the CMHC premium (if applicable), property tax, and many other fees. For example, if you’re purchasing a $700,000 house you can expect to pay around $20,000 in fees on the closing date.

Secure your mortgage

After you’ve placed your “offer to purchase”, your next step is to contact your mortgage broker to get your mortgage approval. Your mortgage broker can help you here, but you’ll also need a lawyer for their assistance.

Once you’ve secured your mortgage, you need to fulfill the mortgage and legal requirements to fund your mortgage as scheduled to ensure your plan goes off without a hitch. This looks different depending on what lender your mortgage is coming from, but don’t worry – your mortgage broker should hold your hand through this process to make sure you don’t miss any steps.

Well, there you have it: a step-by-step guide to your journey from being a renter to a homeowner. While this is an overview and there are of course many more in-depth aspects to each part of your journey, there is one overarching theme here that will determine your success as a homeowner: having a financial plan.

By Lauren Arnold, Planswell

JULY 28, 2019

BoC not reacting to U.S. interest cut 

General Robyn McLean 6 Aug

Insight from our friends at FNAT…

As was widely predicted the U.S. Federal Reserve has gone ahead with an interest rate cut. It is the first reduction by the American central bank since the financial collapse more than a decade ago.

The Fed trimmed a quarter-point off its benchmark rate bringing it to a range of 2.0% to 2.25%, and a step closer to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate of 1.75%. It remains unlikely the BoC will be doing anything to widen that gap any time soon.

The economies in both countries are strong with good employment numbers. Some market watchers have noted that the data do not make a clear argument for the cut. Fed chair Jerome Powell characterized the move as pre-emptive, against downside risks.

The U.S. did report a one percentage point drop in GDP growth in the second quarter, dipping to 2.1%. It pointed to headwinds from slowing global growth and ongoing trade conflicts. Given that those conflicts have been triggered by the current U.S. administration the Fed’s 25 basis point cut can been seen as more political than economic, with the “headwinds” blowing out of the White House.

Canada, on the other hand, saw GDP increase 0.2% in May. Thirteen of 20 sectors advanced, led by manufacturing. Annual GDP growth now stands at 1.4%. The Bank of Canada appears happy with that. It is also satisfied with the jobs picture and inflation.

Aug 6, 2019
First National Financial LP

More weight on rates…

General Robyn McLean 30 Jul

A current view on today’s interest rate environment from our friends at FNAT.

Some more weight has been added to the scale that is tipping in favour of an interest cut in the United States.  Economic growth, in the U.S., slowed to 2.1% in the second quarter, down a full percentage point, from 3.1% in the first quarter.

A key factor in the slowdown is a 5.2% drop in exports.  Many analysts see that as self-imposed pain brought on by the Trump administration’s trade fight with China.  The dispute is also contributing to the slowdown in Europe, and elsewhere.

The drop in GDP growth is seen as additional ammunition for those targeting the U.S. Federal Reserve for a rate cut this week.  However, there are prominent analysts who say a cut is not needed at this time.  U.S. growth remains above the five-year average and unemployment is at 50 year lows.

Last week the European Central Bank held the line on its benchmark interest rate, but made it clear it intends to take steps to boost the Euro-Zone’s sagging economy.  The ECB is signalling the distinct possibility of rate cuts and it is also looking at restarting its simulative bond buying program.

The Bank of Canada remains firmly on the sidelines.  It is content with the country’s employment rate, inflation, and its current growth figures.

Jul 29, 2019
First National Financial LP

When is a good time to get into the market?

General Robyn McLean 26 Jul

Some great insight into when it’s the right time to get into the market from our friends at EQ Bank.

When it comes to real estate, one of the most common questions is: when is the best time to buy? The typical response is the best time to buy was yesterday and the second best time is today. That response is a bit clichéd as many homebuyers have heard it before and it doesn’t provide any practical advice.

Buying a home will likely be the largest purchase people make in their lives which is why they want to be as informed as possible when making their decisions. It’s impossible to predict where the markets are headed, but there are some scenarios where it makes sense to get into the market.

Early in the year

Historically, real estate sales slow down at the start of the year. This happens because many people aren’t exactly excited to go out in the winter to search for a new home. Although there’s usually less inventory available during this season, there’s an opportunity for buyers since sellers may be more motivated to negotiate on price to complete the sale.

When interest rates are low

Over the last couple of years, interest rates in Canada have been at near record lows. In 2018, when the Canadian economy was doing well, the Bank of Canada increased interest rates three times from 1% to the current rate of 1.75%. The economy has since cooled and a recent poll found that many economists expect rates to remain flat until the end of 2020.

In the first half of 2020, we’ve seen mortgage rates fluctuate both up and down. In early 2019, 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates rose to between 4.5% and 5.0%. However, right now, we’re seeing rates as low as 2.54% which can be very appealing to potential and current homeowners.

When your financial situation is optimal

Buying a home is a goal for many Canadians, but it’s easier to make that a reality if your financial situation is in good standing. Ideally, you should have a secure income, good credit score, no or limited debt, and a healthy down payment.

By having all of the above, lenders are more likely to approve you for a mortgage in the amount you’re looking for. That’s not to say that lenders will ignore potential homeowners who have debt or are on a single income, it just means that they may not be extended as much money.

When inventories are high

Real estate is cyclical and things can change fast. A seller’s market can quickly become a buyer’s market if a lot of homes are up for sale. Generally speaking, spring and summer are when listings are at their peak, but there’s also an increased amount of buyers so that doesn’t automatically mean buyers will get a deal.

The highest month for home-for-sale inventories is May, followed by April and June which lines up perfectly for potential homeowners who are looking to move in by Labour Day. If there are more homes for sale compared to buyers, then sellers will need to ensure their home is priced competitively so they can get it off the market.

When the economy is doing well

Although interest rates may rise when the economy is doing well, it may still be a good time to buy a home. Those looking to buy who have been pre-approved for a mortgage may not feel the effects of any increased rates and they may be able to take advantage of new market conditions.

With an increased economy, there may be more construction of new homes which means more inventory for potential homeowners to choose from. This scenario also helps current homeowners who are looking to move up on the property ladder since they’ll likely have an easier time selling their current home before buying a new one.

The pros and cons of buying real estate

The above factors are all good reasons to start looking for a home but note that homeownership isn’t for everyone. If you’re looking to enter the real estate market, it’s important to look at the pros and cons early so you know what you’re getting into.

Pros

  • As a homeowner, you can choose what to do with your home
  • Over time, you build equity in your home
  • You may be able to generate income from your home by renting it out (or a portion of it)
  • There are some tax benefits e.g. tax deductions on mortgage interest

Cons

  • As a homeowner, you’re responsible for all the maintenance and repairs
  • There’s limited flexibility if you need to relocate quickly
  • A huge part of your net worth is locked into your home which makes it difficult to diversify
  • There are additional expenses that renters don’t have such as property tax and repairs

As you can see, deciding on when is a good time to get into the real estate market depends on quite a few things. There’s never an ideal time, but you can look at the current market conditions as well as your own financial situation and then decide if you’re ready to become a homeowner.

Sincerely,

Joe Flor
Director, National Sales
Equitable Bank

Tips: Keep your home’s exterior in good shape and preserve its value!

General Robyn McLean 24 Jul

Some great tips from our friends at Pillar & Post on helping to maintain your property’s value!

Exterior Upkeep To Do Now

Try these essential tips to keep your home’s exterior in good shape and to help preserve its value.

ROOF AND SIDING

  • Use binoculars to check the roof for missing or damaged shingles. Flashing should be tight and secured to prevent leaks. Have any problem areas repaired by a licensed, qualified roofing contractor.
  • Repair any cracks or gaps in the siding and around windows. Make sure these are repaired before you decide to paint.
  • No need to paint? Power washing makes quick work of removing built up dirt and mildew and will brighten your home immediately. You can hire a professional to do this, or rent the equipment by the day or half day.

GUTTERS AND DRAINAGE

  • Clean debris from gutters and evestroughs, then flush with a garden hose.
  • Check all downspouts to make sure they direct water away from the house.
  • Clear basement window wells of debris, weeds, and other materials. Don’t use window wells to store items such as garden hoses or tools. Obstructing the wells’ drainage system can cause water to leak into the house.

WALKWAYS AND DRIVEWAY

  • Repair gaps and cracks using materials appropriate for your specific surfaces, such as concrete, asphalt, etc.
  • On walkways and steps, repair uneven or heaved surfaces that can create a tripping hazard.

A well-maintained exterior not only looks good and can help prevent big problems down the road, it will make you feel good about coming home every day.

Qualifying Mortgage Rate Falls For First Time Since B-20 Intro

General Robyn McLean 22 Jul

 Finally some good news for buyers and valuable insight from Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist at DLC Dominion Lending.
The interest rate used by the federally regulated banks in mortgage stress tests has declined for the first time since 2016, making it a bit easier to get a mortgage. This is particularly important for first-time homeowners who have been struggling to pass the B-20 stress test. The benchmark posted 5-year fixed rate has fallen from 5.34% to 5.19%. It’s the first change since May 9, 2018. And it’s the first decrease since Sept. 7, 2016, despite a 106-basis-point nosedive in Canada’s 5-year bond rate since November 8 (see chart below).

Five-Year Canadian Bond Yield

The benchmark qualifying mortgage rate is announced each week by the banks and “posted” by the Bank of Canada every Thursday as the “conventional 5-year mortgage rate.” The Bank of Canada surveys the six major banks’ posted 5-year fixed rates every Wednesday and uses a mode average of those rates to set the official benchmark. Over the past 18-months, since the revised B-20 stress test was implemented, posted rates have been almost 200 basis points above the rates banks are willing to offer, and the banks expect the borrower to negotiate the interest rate down. Less savvy homebuyers can find themselves paying mortgages rates well above the rates more experienced homebuyers do. Mortgage brokers do not use posted rates, instead offering the best rates from the start.
The benchmark rate (also known as, stress test rate or “mortgage qualifying rate”) is what federally regulated lenders use to calculate borrowers’ theoretical mortgage payments. A mortgage applicant must then prove they can afford such a payment. In other words, prove that amount doesn’t cause them to exceed the lender’s standard debt-ratio limits.The rate is purposely inflated to ensure people can afford higher rates in the future.
The impact of the B-20 stress test has been very significant and continues to be felt in all corners of the housing market. As expected, the new mortgage rules distorted sales activity both before and after implementation. According to TD Bank economists in a recent report, “The B-20 has lowered Canadian home sales by about 40k between 2017Q4 and 2018Q4, with disproportionate impacts on the overvalued Toronto and Vancouver markets and first-time homebuyers…All else equal, if the B-20 regulation was removed immediately, home sales and prices could be 8% and 6% higher, respectively, by the end of 2020, compared to current projections.”

According to Rate Spy, for a borrower buying a home with 5% down, today’s drop in the stress-test rate means:

  • Someone making $50,000 a year can afford $2,800 (1.3%) more home
  • Someone making $100,000 a year can afford $5,900 (1.3%) more home
    (Assumes no other debts and a 25-year amortization. Figures are rounded and approximate.)

For a borrower buying a home with 20% down, today’s drop in the stress-test rate means:

  • Someone making $50,000 a year can afford $4,000 (1.4%) more home
  • Someone making $100,000 a year can afford $8,300 (1.4%) more home
    (Assumes no other debts and a 30-year amortization. Figures are rounded and approximate.)

Bottom Line: Almost no one saw this coming due to the stress test rate’s obscure and arcane calculation method (see Note below). This 15 basis point drop in in the qualifying rate will not turn the housing market around in the hardest-hit regions, but it will be an incremental positive psychological boost for buyers. It should also counter, in some small part, what’s been the slowest lending growth in five years.

Note: Here’s the scoop on why the qualifying rate fell. According to the Bank of Canada:
“There are currently two modes at equal distance from the simple 6-bank average. Therefore, the Bank would use its assets booked in CAD to determine the mode. We use the latest M4 return data released on OSFI’s website to do so. To obtain the value of assets booked in CAD, simply do the subtraction of total assets in foreign currency from total assets in total currency.”

The BoC explains further:

“Prior to July 15th, we were using April’s asset data to determine the typical rate as that was what was published on OSFI’s website. On July 15th, OSFI published the asset data for May, and that is what we used yesterday to determine the 5-year mortgage rate. As a result, the rate changed from 5.34% to 5.19%.”

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres