Canadian Qualifying Mortgage Rate Lowered to 4.99%

General Robyn McLean 6 Feb

TD’s move may be an indicator of more to come. Some interesting insight from DLC’s Chief Economist, Dr. Sherry Cooper.

Market interest rates have fallen sharply since the coronavirus-led investor flight to the safety of government bonds. The 5-year government bond yield–a harbinger of conventional mortgage rates–now stands at 1.34%, down sharply from the 1.60+% range it was trading in before the virus became global news (see chart below).

This morning, one of the Big-Six banks finally reacted. TD cut its posted 5-year fixed rate to 4.99%. TD’s posted rate had previously been at 5.34%, making this a 36 basis point cut. Other banks had lowered their qualifying rate to 5.19% last July, leading the Bank of Canada to cut its 5-year conventional mortgage rate to 5.19%. This is the qualifying rate under the B-20 rule introduced on January 1, 2018.

Even the regulators have been questioning the efficacy and fairness of using the big-bank posted rate as a qualifying rate for mortgage stress testing.

On January 24, the Assistant Superintendent of OSFI’s Regulation Sector, Ben Gully, gave a speech at the C.D. Howe Institute suggesting that the B-20 qualifying mortgage rate historically would be no more than 200 basis points above contract rates. He said that OSFI chose the “best available rate at the time.”

He went on to say that for many years, the difference between the benchmark rate and the average contract rate was 200 bps. However, this gap “has been widening more recently, suggesting that the benchmark is less responsive to market changes than when it was first proposed. We are reviewing this aspect of our qualifying rate, as the posted rate is not playing the role that we intended. As always, we will share our results with our federal partners. This will help to inform the advice OSFI might provide to the Minister, as requested in the mandate letter to him.

By keeping posted rates too high, the Big-Six banks have inflated the qualifying rate, making it more difficult than necessary to pass the stress test to get a mortgage.

While TD’s rate cut is welcome news, its posted rate is still too high by historical standards. Given today’s average contract rates, the posted rate should be at least 20 bps lower still.

Banks have a strong incentive to inflate their posted mortgage rate. For one thing, they are the basis for the calculation of big-bank mortgage penalties. Also, they are the minimum qualifying rate.

The posted rate does not appropriately reflect the state of the mortgage market as few borrowers would pay this rate. Interestingly, banks often move this rate in lock-step, or close to it, reflecting their dominant oligopolistic position in the marketplace.

If a couple of the other big banks follow TD’s lead, the Bank of Canada benchmark rate will be below 5% for the first time since January 2018 when the new B-20 rules were adopted. Lowering the stress test rate by 20 bps from 5.19% to 4.99% would require roughly 1.8% less income to qualify for a mortgage on the average Canadian home price (assuming a 20% downpayment), increasing buying power by 2%. This doesn’t sound like much, but it can have a meaningful psychological impact on already improving housing markets. The latest CREA data shows that the national average home price surged 9.6% year-over-year in December. A lower stress test rate would make a busy spring housing market even more active.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

5 Financial Benefits Only Available for Homeowners 

General Robyn McLean 3 Feb

Did you know? Some great information from our friends at rew.ca

 Sure, renting has its perks, but did you know there are some great financial incentives only available to homeowners? If you currently own or are thinking about buying, make sure you take full advantage of these.

1. Possible Tax Breaks and Benefits are Attractive Incentives

Everyone loves a tax break! Although most tax benefit programs are specific to each province, there is a National Program called the First-Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit (HBTC). The purpose of the HBTC is to give you back a small portion of the purchase price considering that one of the biggest challenges for first-time home buyers is the down payment. This tax credit can give you a non-refundable $5,000 when you file your tax return the year after you purchase. This translates to roughly $750 extra in your pocket. Great for those new home expenses that may pop up.

Provincially, there are many different tax breaks and benefit programs available across the country. Exclusive to British Columbia, for example, is the First Time Home Buyers’ Program. It exempts first-time home buyers from the property transfer tax by reducing or eliminating the amount of tax paid. There are certain stipulations so make sure you check the qualification criteria

BC has some of the most expensive real estate in the country, and with that comes some of the steepest property taxes. With the Home Owner Grant, you may be eligible to reduce property taxes on an annual basis with the amount of  tax relief dependant on where you live. For example, if you are living in Vancouver you might be eligible for a $570 grant, whereas outside of the Capital Regional District, Greater Vancouver, or the Fraser Valley District, you may be eligible for a grant of $770.

BC also has a tax incentive for home buyers who are not first-time home buyers necessarily but are purchasing a newly built home. The Newly Built Home Exemption helps lower or eliminate the property transfer tax you are required to pay. This exemption applies to newly built homes only and can save you up to $13,000 in tax exemptions. 

Similarly, Ontario offers a refund on all or part of your land transfer tax. But you need to be an eligible first-time home buyer. This program can save you up to $4,000 in taxes. Prince Edward has a program as well with a maximum of $2,000 refund.

2. How Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Helps with Home Ownership

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is a Crown Corporation of the Government of Canada. It exists to help make housing affordable to everyone in Canada and has developed several programs to help homeowners and first-time home buyers find more affordable options.

The First-Time Home Buyers Incentive Plan offers five to 10 per cent of the homes’ purchase price to put toward a down payment. These additional funds added to your down payment help lower your mortgage carrying cost.

The Government of Canada, essentially, partners with you in a Shared Equity Mortgage, taking a share of the increase or decrease in your property’s market value. There are specific criteria to qualify.

3. Home Buyers Plan Helps You Leverage RRSP Investment

Another great Federal Program is the Home Buyer’s Plan (HBP), which allows you to use a $35,000 Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) withdrawal to put towards your new home purchase. It is specifically designed to assist first-time home buyers in saving funds to purchase a home.

Normally, when you withdraw funds from your RRSP, you’re taxed on those funds. Under the HBP, you can withdraw up to the $35,000 amount in a single calendar year to put towards a down payment of your first home.

4. GST/HST New Housing Rebate Can Put Money Back in Your Wallet

It’s true! By buying a home you may qualify for a rebate on part of the GST or HST you paid on the purchase or cost of building your new home. In addition, you could save on the cost of substantially renovating or building a major addition onto your existing home, or on converting non-residential property into a house. There are multiple rebates you can claim, and the value of this rebate will vary based on which category your home purchase falls. Your accountant or tax office can point you in the right direction on this one.

5. Building Equity and Credit Gives Financial Benefits

Beyond the provincial and federal programs available, another key financial benefit to buying a home is to build equity. Not only will you own “more” of your home (a.k.a. equity), you also build a line of credit. This is a significant asset you can use for almost anything. A home equity line of credit (HELOC) is essentially a secured form of credit. The lender uses your home as a guarantee that you’ll pay back the money you borrow. You can borrow money, pay it back, and borrow it again, usually up to a maximum credit limit. 

If you have been renting because home ownership seemed out of reach, look at the requirements to qualify for these programs. You may be surprised at what you can save as a homeowner!

By Catherine Musgrove Jan 22, 2020

Rew.ca

How Long Would it Take to Save the Maximum Funds for the HBP?

General Robyn McLean 23 Jan

Some interesting statistics on savings for the Home Buyer’s Plan in Canada from our friends at Zoocasa

Using the HBP comes with the caveat that RRSP funds must be saved in the first place – not always an easy feat in markets where incomes haven’t kept pace with housing prices and other inflationary pressures.

With this in mind, how long would it actually take for home buyers across Canada to save the maximum $35,000 in their RRSP to put toward a new home?

To find out, Zoocasa analyzed individual income thresholds in 14 regions across Canada, based on 2017 tax filings from Statistics Canada, assuming the income was earned income, eligible to create RRSP contribution room, and that individuals contributed the maximum to their RRSP annually (18% of earned income, to a maximum of $26,500). The study also compared how long it would take for those in the top 50%, 25%, and 10% income groups to save $35,000.

The study finds that for those earning median incomes across Canada, it would take between 4.3 – 6.0 years to save $35,000 for the HBP.

It would take those looking to buy Ottawa real estate the least amount of time to save; due to the city’s strong public service and government sectors, median incomes are higher than in other major regions at $44,700, making it possible for savers to set aside a maximum of $8,046 annually. In contrast, it would take the longest in Toronto, where the median income is comparably lower at $32,600, allowing for a maximum RRSP contribution of $5,868.

Those timelines are roughly halved for those earning within the top 25% of incomes to between 2.5 – 3.3 years. Montreal residents will be saving the longest, due to an income of $58,100, allowing for a contribution of $10,458, while the shortest timeline is again in Ottawa, with incomes of $79,100 and a maximum contribution of $14,238.

However, it would take those in the top 10% of income earners just 1.6 – 2.2 years to set aside $35,000; again, the longest timeline occurs in Montreal, with an income of $88,400 and a maximum contribution of $15,912. Meanwhile, those earning $122,300 in Calgary face the shortest timeline to put funds away, as they’re able to make a contribution of $22,014 annually.

Check out the infographic below to see how long it would take to save $35,000 in an RRSP across Canada:

Methodology

Benchmark home prices and average home prices for December 2019 were sourced from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Income groups and income thresholds by metropolitan area are based on 2017 tax filings and were sourced from Statistics Canada. The annual RRSP contribution limit is 18% of earned income, up to a maximum of $26,500, as set out by the Government of Canada.

For the purpose of this report, the income amount was assumed to be earned income, and thus eligible for calculating RRSP contribution room. The maximum withdrawal limit from RRSPs for the Home Buyers’ Plan is $35,000, as set out by the Government of Canada. The number of years it takes to save $35,000 in RRSPs is calculated as $35,000 divided by the annual RRSP contribution limit.

Bank of Canada Holds Steady Despite Economic Slowdown

General Robyn McLean 22 Jan

Today’s news from Dominion Lending’s Chief Economist, Dr. Sherry Cooper

In a more dovish statement, the Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1.75% for the tenth consecutive time. Today’s decision was widely expected as members of the Governing Council have signalled that the Bank still believes that the Canadian economy is resilient, despite the marked slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter of last year that has spilled into the early part of this year. The economy has underperformed the forecast in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

In today’s MPR, the Bank estimates growth of only 0.3% in Q4 of 2019 and 1.3%in the first quarter of 2020. Exports fell late last year, and business investment appears to have weakened after a strong Q3, reflecting a decline in business confidence. Job creation has slowed, and indicators of consumer confidence and spending have been much softer than expected. The one bright light has been residential investment, which was robust through most of 2019, moderating to a still-solid pace in the fourth quarter only because of a dearth of newly listed properties for sale. 

The central bank’s press release stated that “Some of the slowdown in growth in late 2019 was related to temporary factors that include strikes, poor weather, and inventory adjustments. The weaker data could also signal that global economic conditions have been affecting Canada’s economy to a greater extent than was predicted. Moreover, during the past year, Canadians have been saving a larger share of their incomes, which could signal increased consumer caution which could dampen consumer spending but help to alleviate financial vulnerabilities at the same time.”

The January MPR states that over the projection horizon (2020 and 2021), “business investment and exports are anticipated to improve as oil transportation capacity expands, and the impact of trade policy headwinds on global growth diminishes. Household spending is projected to strengthen, driven by solid growth of both the population and household disposable income.” Growth is expected to be 1.6% in 2019 and 2020 and is anticipated to strengthen to 2.0% in 2021.

Inflation has remained at roughly the Bank’s target of 2%, and is expected to continue at that pace.

Also from the MPR: “The level of housing activity remains solid across most of Canada, although recent indicators suggest that residential investment growth has slowed from its previously strong pace. Demand remains robust in Quebec, where the labour market has been strong. In Ontario and British Columbia, population growth is boosting housing demand. In contrast, Alberta’s housing market continues to adjust to challenges in the oil and gas sector. Nationally, house prices have continued to increase and should strengthen slightly in the near term, consistent with the responses to the Bank’s recent Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.”

Bottom Line: The Canadian dollar sold off on the release of this statement and I believe there is a downside risk to the Bank of Canada forecast. Today’s release is a more dovish statement than last month, showing less confidence in the outlook. The Governing Council did express concern that the recent weakness in growth could be more persistent than their current forecast, saying that “the Bank will be paying particular attention to developments in consumer spending, the housing market, and business investment.” They also raised estimates of slack in the economy and dropped language about the current rate being appropriate.

According to Bloomberg News, today’s Governing Council comments “are a departure from recent communications in which officials sought to accentuate the positives of an economy that had been running near capacity and was deemed resilient in the face of global uncertainty. While Wednesday’s decision still leaves the Bank of Canada with the highest policy rate among major advanced economies, markets may interpret the statement as an attempt to, at the very least, open the door for a future move.”

Improving your credit score isn’t as hard as you think!

General Robyn McLean 21 Jan

If you’re credit challenged but want to get into the housing market, it can be a tough road. But improving your credit to a point where a lender will give you a chance, is very doable.

Basically, what you need to know is a score above 680 puts you in a good position to get financing, while below will make it tough and improvement is needed.

Your credit score tells lenders some basic stuff about your credit: How long you’ve had credit, your ability to pay back that credit and how much you owe. And so your credit score is affected by how much debt you’re carrying in regards to limit, how many cards or tradelines you have and your history of repayment. If you’re a young person and new to the world of credit, consider the 2-2-2 rule to help build up your credit. Lenders want to see two forms or revolving credit, like credit cards, with limits no less than $2,000 and a clean history of payment for two years. It’s also good to note, a great credit score will also include keeping a balance on all those cards at any given time below 30 per cent of the limit.

To ensure your score stays in playoff form, make sure to pay off any collections, like parking tickets, and correct any old or incorrect reporting on your credit score by contacting Equifax to have it removed.

Some people also forget their credit cards have an annual fee and fail to pay them off too. This cannot

be stressed enough, if you want to keep or attain a good credit score, you have to pay your credit cards or tradelines on time regardless of whether you owe $1 or $1 million.

Debt and credit often go hand-in-hand. There is also such a thing as good debt and of course bad debt. Good debt consists of things like a mortgage, investment property, and college/university tuition. Bad debt includes, retail store credit cards, cars, and vacations. There is a tendency when things get really bad to consider declaring bankruptcy or a consumer proposal. A consumer proposal is a formal, legally binding process to pay creditors a percentage of what is owed to them. You really want to avoid these two options. Instead, there are companies out there that will perform the same function and negotiate your debts, but it won’t impact your credit or carry the stigma of bankruptcy or a consumer proposal.

Lastly, if you already own a home and have some equity, but you’re still drowning in credit debt, consider refinancing your mortgage. Sure, you might not get the great rate you have now or you might get dinged for breaking your mortgage early, but using the equity in your home to get rid of high interest credit payments could keep more money in your pocket at the end of the day. To change your debt-to-income ratio, consider stopping all credit card activity and don’t rack up any additional borrowing.

Changing your financial direction

General Robyn McLean 17 Jan

Some great tips if you’re looking to change your financial direction this year from our friends at Dominion Lending!

If you live paycheque to paycheque, the idea of somehow having enough money to invest and eventually have financial freedom seems about the furthest thing possible. But experts in financial education like to point out, no matter your income and place in life, a few changes to the way you’re living life can make all the difference. No matter where you are in life, it’s never too late to start learn and reverse course. If you’re still not convinced, there are a few simple ideas to get you started.

Pretend You Earn Less Than You Do

Give yourself a cut in pay. The goal is to put 10% in savings from each paycheque into your savings account. The easiest way is to do an automatic direct transfer from your chequing account to your savings.

Create a Budget

In order to stop living paycheque to paycheque, you need to know where that paycheque is going. Creating a budget is simple with Google docs, or look into other online tools and sites to get started.

Build an Emergency Fund

Once you have your budget in place, review it and break it down into non-discretionary expenses (rent, groceries, utilities, etc.) and discretionary expenses (eating out, entertainment, clothes, etc.).

See where you could cut down on eating out and put that money towards your fund. Even starting with just a little amount is great and helps you build the habit.

Consider Downsizing

It may be time to consider a lifestyle change. Consider moving to a smaller place. Replace going to that expensive gym with a trip to the local park. Think about if you really need that brand new car or if a used one would work just as well.

Pay Down Debt

If you have a lot of credit card or unsecured debt, try paying the minimum on all but one of them and aggressively pay down that one card. Once it’s paid off, attack the next one. If you’re so deep in debt that you can’t fight your way out, consider consulting with a company who specializes in debt consolidation. They will help you negotiate your debt into smaller amounts that you can begin to pay off.

Don’t Forget Your Future

Putting at least 3% of your paycheque into a retirement fund is a great idea, or maybe when you get your first raise instead of thinking of it as free money, simply put it into a fund and forget about it. You’ll be glad it’s there when you need it in the future.

Welcome Rebound in Labour Markets in December 

General Robyn McLean 16 Jan

Looking at the positives… from DLC’s Chief Economist, Dr. Sherry Cooper

For this notoriously volatile data series, it is particularly true that ‘one month does not a trend make.’ Following last month’s dismal employment report, job growth rebounded in December, erasing almost half of the earlier decline (even more if you exclude transitory factors in November). As well, the unemployment rate reversed much of its November spike, capping the second-best year of job growth since the recession and supporting the Bank of Canada’s view that the Canadian economy is resilient.

Canada’s economy created 35,200 net new jobs in December, bringing the total number of jobs added to 320,300 in 2019, the second-most since 2007. The jobless rate ticked down three basis points to 5.6% and wage gains decelerated to a still-healthy 3.8% from a year earlier.

All of the job creation was in full-time employment in the private sector. Provincially, employment gains in December were led by Ontario and Quebec; British Columbia led declines. Construction jobs increased markedly, with BC and Ontario contributing the most to the rise. Following two months of decline, employment in manufacturing was little changed in December. The trade war has hit manufacturing hard, and even though a trade deal will be signed by China and the US next week, it does not eliminate the bulk of the tariffs imposed in the past year.

In December, BC continued to have the lowest jobless rate in the country at 4.8% (see Table below). Ontario and Quebec are now running neck-in-neck following a period of stronger job growth in Quebec. Atlantic Canada remains in the last place with secularly high unemployment rates–a long-standing situation.
Bottom Line: the December employment report confirms the Bank of Canada’s current policy stance that despite headwinds, the Canadian economy remains relatively resilient and that further interest rate cuts are unnecessary. This assessment can change on a dime in today’s uncertain world, but for now, the central bank is likely to remain on hold. Interest rates have risen in the past six-to-eight weeks owing to market forces. The fourth-quarter GDP growth in Canada has slowed markedly on weakness in consumer and business spending; hence the Bank will be monitoring closely upcoming data. We are forecasting roughly 1.8% growth in the economy in 2020, about in line with the 2019 pace. With very tight labour markets, the output gap has closed, and the economy will run at the longer-run potential growth pace consistent with our forecast.

Consumer Confidence Down

Canadian consumers appear to be less sanguine about the outlook than economists. In an end-of-year survey for Bloomberg News by Nanos Research Group, 55% of Canadians said there’s at least a “somewhat likely” chance of a recession this year. Only 33% reported a recession is unlikely, with 12% unsure. According to Bloomberg News, ” the downbeat perceptions reflect a pervasive sense of caution that has dogged the country’s households for more than a year and impacted their behaviour.”

Excluding housing, annual growth in total household consumption has averaged 1.1% in real terms over the past four quarters, the slowest pace outside recession since at least 1962. Another sign of cautiousness: savings rates are inching higher and are now at their highest level since 2015.

Bloomberg reports that “there are also indications that consumer worries have levelled off. The results are little changed from a similar poll taken at the end of November. A separate gauge of consumer confidence — the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index — saw a rebound in December from a two-month slide, as stock markets surged at the end of last year and sentiment around real estate recovered.”

Not surprisingly, recession concerns are most pronounced in prairie provinces like Alberta, where almost three-quarters of households see a chance of a 2020 contraction. Alberta has been hard hit by the plunge in oil prices since mid-2014 and is only slowly recovering. A majority of respondents in British Columbia and Ontario are also concerned a downturn is imminent. Quebec was the only province where optimists outnumbered pessimists.

Consumer confidence in the US has also declined, yet the stock markets in both countries continue to post record highs. We are in the eleventh year of economic expansion, the longest expansion on record, although it is not the strongest. Unlike the US, Canada has benefitted from a surge in immigration in the past three years, boosting growth.

Canadian housing markets have rebounded considerably from the Jan 1, 2018 imposition of the B-20 mortgage stress tests and fiscal stimulus is likely in the next budget,

Dr. Sherry Cooper, Chief Economist

Dominion Lending Centres

National Housing Market Update: Now a Seller’s Market in the GTA

General Robyn McLean 16 Jan

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national existing-home sales dipped between November and December owing to a dearth of new listings, especially in the GTA.

National home sales edged down 0.9% in the final month of 2019, ending a streak of monthly gains that began last March. Activity is now about 18% above the six-year low reached in February 2019 but ends the year about 7% below the peak recorded in 2016 and 2017 (see chart below).

There was an almost even split between the number of local markets where activity rose and those where it declined, with higher sales in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Calgary and Montreal offsetting declines in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Ottawa.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 22.7% compared to the quiet month of December in 2018. Transactions surpassed year-ago levels across most of Canada, including all of the largest urban markets.

The December decline in home sales is not a sign of weakness but is instead the result of diminishing supply. Excess demand continues to push up prices in most regions of Canada. Demand has been boosted by low interest rates, strong population growth and strong labour markets that have triggered significant gains in household incomes. Mitigating this, in part, is the mortgage stress-test, which continues to sideline some potential buyers.

According to Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist, “The momentum for home price gains picked up as last year came to a close. If the recent past is prelude, then price trends in British Columbia, the GTA, Ottawa and Montreal look set to lift the national result this year, despite the continuation of a weak pricing environment among housing markets across the Prairie region.”

New Listings
The number of newly listed homes slid a further 1.8% in December following a 2.7% decline the month before, leaving supply close to its lowest level in a decade.Slightly higher sales and a drop in new listings further tightened the national sales-to-new listings ratio to 66.3%, which is well above the long-term average of 53.7%. If current trends continue, the balance between supply and demand makes further home price gains likely.

December’s drop was driven mainly by fewer new listings in the GTA and Ottawa–the same markets most responsible for the decline in sales. Listings available for purchase are now running at a 12-year low. The number of housing markets with a shortage of listings is on the rise; should current trends persist, fewer available listings will likely increasingly weigh on sales activity.

With new listings having declined by more than sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio further tightened to 66.9% in December 2019 – the highest reading since the spring of 2004. The long-term average for this measure of housing market balance is 53.7%. Price gains appear poised to accelerate in 2020.

Considering the degree and duration to which market balance readings are above or below their long-term averages is the best way of gauging whether local housing market conditions favour buyers or sellers. Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of their long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions.

Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, just over half of all local markets were in balanced market territory in December 2019. That list still includes Greater Vancouver (GVA) but no longer consists of the GTA, where market balance favours sellers in purchase negotiations (see chart below). By contrast, an oversupply of homes relative to demand across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan means sales negotiations remain tilted in favour of buyers. Meanwhile, an ongoing shortage of homes available for purchase across most of Ontario, Quebec and the Maritime provinces means sellers there hold the upper hand in sales negotiations.

The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between sales and the supply of listings. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity. There were 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of December 2019 – the lowest level recorded since the summer of 2007. This measure of market balance has been falling further below its long-term average of 5.3 months. While still within balanced market territory, its current reading suggests that sales negotiations are becoming increasingly tilted in favour of sellers.

There remain significant and increasing disparities in housing market activity across regions of Canada. The number of months of inventory has swollen far beyond long-term averages in Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador, giving homebuyers ample choice in these regions. By contrast, the measure is running well below long-term averages in Ontario, Quebec and Maritime provinces, resulting in increased competition among buyers for listings and providing fertile ground for price gains. The measure is still within balanced market territory in British Columbia but is becoming increasingly tilted in favour of sellers.

Home Prices
The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.8%, marking its seventh consecutive monthly gain. It is now up nationally 4.7% from last year’s lowest point posted in May. The MLS® HPI in December was up from the previous month in 14 of the 18 markets tracked by the index. ( see table below).Home price trends have generally been stabilizing in the Prairies in recent months following lengthy declines but are clearly on the rise again in British Columbia and Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH). Further east, price growth in Ottawa and Montreal has been ongoing for some time and strengthened toward the end of 2019.

Comparing home prices to year-ago levels yields considerable variations across the country, although for the most part has been regionally split along east/west lines, with declines in the Lower Mainland and major Prairie markets and gains in central and eastern Canada.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) Aggregate Composite MLS® (HPI) rose 3.4% y-o-y in December 2019, the biggest year-over-year gain since March 2018.

Home prices in Greater Vancouver (-3.1%) and the Fraser Valley (-2%) remain below year-ago levels, but declines are shrinking. Elsewhere in British Columbia, home prices logged y-o-y increases in the Okanagan Valley (+4.2%), Victoria (+2.3%) and elsewhere on Vancouver Island (+4.2%). Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon posted y-o-y price declines of around -1% to -2%, while the gap has widened to -4.6% in Regina.

In Ontario, home price growth has re-accelerated well above consumer price inflation across most of the GGH. Meanwhile, price gains in recent years have continued uninterrupted in Ottawa, Montreal and Moncton.

All benchmark home categories tracked by the index accelerated further into positive territory on a y-o-y basis. One-storey single-family home prices posted the most significant increase (3.6%) followed closely by apartment units (3.4%) and two-storey single-family homes (3.3%). Townhouse/row unit prices climbed a slightly more modest 2.7% compared to December 2018.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in December 2019 was around $517,000, up 9.6% from the same month the previous year.

The national average price is heavily skewed by sales in the GVA and GTA, two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from calculations cuts more than $117,000 from the national average price, trimming it to around $400,000 and reducing the y-o-y gain to 6.7%.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Jobs up. Rates steady.

General Robyn McLean 14 Jan

Valuable insight on our residential market from our friends at First National

Jan 13, 2020
First National Financial LP

The Canadian economy just keeps playing into the hands of the Bank of Canada as the central bank continues to resist pressures to trim interest rates.

The latest jobs report has given the Bank yet more ammunition to defend its position.  The December figures showed a nice recovery following the sharp drop in November.  The economy netted 35,200 additional jobs last month and the unemployment rate dropped three basis points to 5.6%.  Virtually all of the gains came in full-time employment in the private sector.  The number of part-time positions fell by 3,200 and the public sector shed more than 21,000 jobs.

For all of 2019 Canada added more than 320,000 jobs: 283,000 full-time and 37,500 part-time.  Most of that was in the first half of the year.  Some market watchers see the slowdown through the second half of 2019 as an indicator that big, job growth numbers will likely diminish for 2020.  This could be a sign that slack in the labour market is tightening-up.

None the less, on-going job growth and low unemployment support the Bank of Canada’s stance that the economy remains relatively resilient, despite globe headwinds, and rate cuts are unnecessary.

The next rate setting and Monetary Policy Report are due on January 22nd.

November Data Confirm Canadian Housing Rebound 

General Robyn McLean 9 Jan

The state of the markets from DLC’s Chief Economist, Dr. Sherry Cooper

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that national home sales rose for the ninth consecutive month and now stands a full 20% above the six-year low reached in February 2019. While the chart below shows that monthly home sales are now well above their 10-year average, they remain 6%-to7% below the record pace posted in 2016 and 2017.
There was an almost even split between the number of local markets where activity rose and those where it declined. Higher sales across much of British Columbia and in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) offset a decline in activity in Calgary.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was up 11.3% year-over-year in November. Transactions surpassed year-ago levels in almost all of Canada’s largest urban markets.

“Sales continue to improve in some regions and not so much in others,” said Jason Stephen, president of CREA. “The mortgage stress-test doesn’t help relieve the ongoing shortage of housing in markets where sales have improved, and it continues to hammer housing demand in markets with ample supply.”

According to Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist, “Home prices look set to continue rising in housing markets where sales are recovering amid an ongoing shortage of supply. By the same token, home prices will likely continue trending lower in places where there’s a significant overhang of supply, perpetuated in part by the B-20 mortgage stress-test that continues to sideline homebuyers there.” Weakness continues to be most evident in Alberta and Saskatchewan where the economy has been hard hit by lower commodity prices and delinquency rates have edged upward.

New Listings
The number of newly listed homes slid a further 2.7%, putting them among the lowest levels posted in the past decade. November’s decline was driven primarily by fewer new listings in the GTA.
Slightly higher sales and a drop in new listings further tightened the national sales-to-new listings ratio to 66.3%, which is well above the long-term average of 53.7%. If current trends continue, the balance between supply and demand makes further home price gains likely.Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of their long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions. Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, just over half of all local markets were in balanced market territory in November. That list includes the GTA and Lower Mainland of British Columbia, but market balance there is tightening. By contrast, an oversupply of homes relative to demand across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan means sales negotiations remain tilted in favour of buyers.

Meanwhile, an ongoing shortage of supply of homes available for purchase across most of Ontario, Quebec and the Maritime provinces means sellers there hold the upper hand in sales negotiations. There were just 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of November 2019 – the lowest level recorded since the summer of 2007. This measure of market balance has been retreating further below its long-term average of 5.3 months. While still just within balanced market territory, its current reading suggests that sales negotiations are becoming increasingly tilted in favour of sellers.

National measures of market balance continue to mask significant and increasing regional variations. The number of months of inventory has swollen far beyond long-term averages in Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador, giving homebuyers ample choice in these regions. By contrast, the measure is running well below long-term averages in Ontario, Quebec and Maritime provinces, resulting in increased competition among buyers for listings and providing fertile ground for price gains. The measure is still within balanced market territory in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia but is becoming increasingly tilted in favour of sellers.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.8%. Marking its sixth consecutive monthly gain, it now stands almost 4% above its low point reached last May. The MLS® HPI in November was up from the previous month in 14 of the 18 markets tracked by the index. (Table 1)

Home price trends have generally been stabilizing in the Prairies in recent months. While that remains the case in Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon, prices in Regina have again moved lower. By contrast, home price trends have clearly started to recover in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. Meanwhile, prices continue to rebound in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region while continuing to trend higher in housing markets to the east of it.

Comparing home prices to year-ago levels yields considerable variations across the country, with a mix of gains and declines in western Canada together with price gains in eastern Canada.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) Aggregate Composite MLS® (HPI) was up 2.6% y-o-y in November 2019, the biggest year-over-year gain since March 2018.
Home prices in Greater Vancouver (-4.6%) and the Fraser Valley (-2.9%) remain below year-ago levels but declines are shrinking. Elsewhere in British Columbia, home prices logged y-o-y increases in the Okanagan Valley (+1.4%), Victoria (+1.5%) and elsewhere on Vancouver Island (+2.8%).
Calgary, Edmonton and Saskatoon posted price declines of around -2% y-o-y, while the gap widened to -5.5% y-o-y in Regina.

In Ontario, price growth has re-accelerated well ahead of overall consumer price inflation across most of the GGH. Meanwhile, price growth in recent years has continued uninterrupted in Ottawa, Montreal and Moncton.

All benchmark home categories tracked by the index accelerated further into positive territory on a y-o-y basis. Two-storey single-family home prices posted the biggest increase, rising 2.8% y-o-y. Price gains were almost as strong for apartment units (+2.6% y-o-y) and one-storey single-family homes (+2.5% y o y), while townhouse/row prices climbed a more modest 1.5% compared to November 2018.