What we know. What we can hope for.

General Robyn McLean 14 Apr

Some great insight from our friends at First National. 

Apr 13, 2020

We have been receiving a lot of unsettling economic data lately.

Coming out of February, unemployment stood at 5.6% and nearly 250,000 jobs had been created in the previous 12 months.  By the end of March, nearly a million jobs had disappeared.  The Conference Board of Canada projects that could climb to 2.8 million by the end of April.  The best guess right now is that unemployment stands at about 20%.

Nationally, March housing starts dropped 7.3% compared to February.  The value of building permits – a forward looking indicator – crashed in March, dropping 23%.

As distressing as the numbers are, the real anxiety remains the unknown.  But, many of the country’s best-known economists are putting on brave faces.  They point to the temporary nature of the job losses.  StatsCan reports most workers expect to be back on the job in about six months, once the coronavirus pandemic is deemed to be under control.  We have also come to know that month-to-month job numbers can be volatile and need to be watched over time to establish trends.

The decline in housing starts can, at least in part, be attributed to bans on new construction.  A number of jurisdictions are restricting builders to the completion of existing projects, only.  And the drop in building permits is uneven across the country.  B.C. is down nearly 27%, Ontario is down 50.5%, while Alberta increased nearly 12% and Halifax jumped 153%.

Beyond the Pandemic

General Robyn McLean 6 Apr

Kevin Skipworth, Managin Broker/Partner at Dexter Realty is someone who I respect & admire; he’s a hard-working numbers guy who always adds his own thoughtful insight to anything he shares. I thought I would share with you his most recent look at the state of the industry in our market. Sta safe everyone. 

“Our patience will achieve more than our force” – Edmund Burke

Where to begin. This month’s numbers for Greater Vancouver real estate are a tale of what could have been, not so much what will be. The way sales on a given day are counted by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver are by looking at the day when that sale is reported by a real estate company to the Board, regardless of when the date the contract is written. So, there is a time lag between when the contract is written and when it is reported. This will be important in looking at sales figures for March as a degree of that activity came from transactions that were initiated prior to mid-March.

There were 2,562 homes sold of all types in Greater Vancouver in March this year compared with 2,185 homes sold last month, 1,745 sales in March last year and 2,551 homes sold in March 2018. Sales in March were 19 per cent below the 10-year average for the month of March. The number of sales in March were 47 per cent higher compared to March 2019, continuing the trend for the ninth straight month where year-over-year sales were up. This trend is likely to stop in April as the effect of the COVID-19 Virus impacts the real estate market.

Beyond the Pandemic:

The COVID-19 crisis will continue over the next number of months, a timeframe which is impossible to determine at this time. The numbers show that Greater Vancouver was in the stages of a market gaining momentum. While the market was still reaching for average, it was still vastly improved from last year which was a very challenged real estate market. Pent up demand was coming to the market, and from the provincial numbers identifying a very small number of foreign buyers, these were local buyers. While the real estate market takes a pause for the short term, there are many reasons to think it will be very active when we see some relief from virus, and in some cases why we may see activity over the next few months.

  • Detached/townhouse will be more attractive and in greater demand after this as people want dwellings with social distancing – people will make personal and financial sacrifices for health
  • Those in sectors where the most job losses are occurring in higher numbers aren’t the typical buyers in the market
  • After isolation people will grow tired of their homes and want a change
  • Unfortunately, some marriages may not survive after this hence people will need to move
  • In 9 to 12 months there likely will be a mini-baby boom hence people will need to move
  • Having not spent disposable income as much, people are in saving modes and that will carry on beyond this and will add to what’s available for home purchasing (even with reduced incomes, many of the home buyers are still earning an income)
  • Interest rates will be low for the foreseeable future, lowest we’ve seen
  • With so many sectors in the economy suffering that are important to government revenue, and as they struggle to recover, the government will need investment and revenue from real estate
  • There will be a shortage of homes available coming out of this and continuing so prices will not be dropping to any great degree, and new construction will suffer which will perpetuate the shortage in the years to come
  • Stock markets will continue to be volatile, pushing money into real estate, especially at higher price points
  • Canada’s response to Covid-19 is showing it a favourable place to be – immigration and investment will likely flourish with the United States potentially being a source of those coming to Canada.

The number of homes for sale in Greater Vancouver saw a slight increase in March. At the end of March there were 10,338 homes for sale in Greater Vancouver, compared to 9,894 at the end of February and 13,408 at the end of March 2019. While it may be surprising that we had that many new listings during the current pandemic, April will be more telling of the effects. But we saw 2,511 new listings up to March 15 and then 2,010 after that. The number of new listings per day did start to decline in the days leading up to the end of the month, but we are still seeing listings coming on (233 in Greater Vancouver in the last two days of the month.) Current market conditions are still producing some multiple offers – in all product types. While it may seem like a high number of new listings for current conditions, it is still well below what we would see for March in Greater Vancouver. There were 4,421 new listings during March in Greater Vancouver, down 11 per cent from March last year. The number of new listings in March were 22 per cent below the 10-year average for the month.

The first two weeks of the month were the busiest days of the year for our region with heightened demand and multiple offers becoming more common,” Ashley Smith, REBGV president said, “Like other aspects of our lives, this changed as concerns over the COVID-19 situation in our province grew. “Many of the sales recorded in March were in process before the provincial government declared a state of emergency. We’ll need more time to pass to fully understand the impact that the pandemic is having on the housing market,” Smith said.

East of the Fraser River, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,441 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® in March, an increase of 7 per cent compared to sales in February and a 18 per cent increase compared to the sales in March of last year. According to the Fraser Valley Board, during the first 7 business days of the month, property sales were tracking 60 per cent higher compared to the same period in March of last year, however finished significantly lower.   Active listings for the Fraser Valley finished 6 per cent higher month-over-month and decreased of 13 per cent when compared to March 2019. There were 2,666 new listings in March, a 4 per cent increase compared to February 2020 and a 7 per cent decrease compared to March 2019.

Above all else, right now is a time to focus on staying safe and healthy. There will be real estate activity while we are under these unprecedented times, some people’s financial wellbeing may depend upon it. Others just need a home to isolate in. What’s important is that we all act in a way to help bring back normalcy to our lives – as much as that can be. Be safe and be careful.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising?

General Robyn McLean 30 Mar

Valuable insight aimed at helping us all to understand more as we navigate through this difficult time from DLC’s Chief economist, Dr. Sherry Cooper

Over the past month, the Bank of Canada has lowered its overnight rate by a whopping 1.5 percentage points to a mere 0.25%. Many people expected mortgage rates to fall equivalently. The banks have reduced prime rates by the full 150 basis points (bps). But, since the second Bank of Canada rate cut on March 13, banks and other lenders have hiked mortgage rates for fixed- and variable-rate loans. That’s not what happens typically when the Bank cuts its overnight rate. But these are extraordinary times.

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted everything, shutting down the entire global economy and damaging business and consumer confidence. No one knows when it will end. This degree of uncertainty and the risk to our health is profoundly unnerving.

Most businesses have ground to a halt, so unemployment has surged. Hourly workers and many of the self-employed have found themselves with no income for an indeterminate period. All but essential workers are staying at home, including vast numbers of students and pre-school children. Nothing like this has happened in the past century. The societal and emotional toll is enormous, and governments at all levels are introducing income support programs for individuals and businesses, but so far, no cheques are in the mail.

In consequence, the economy hasn’t just slowed; it has frozen in place and is rapidly contracting. Travel has stopped. Trade and transport have stopped. Manufacturing and commerce have stopped. And this is happening all over the world.

What’s more, the Saudis and Russians took advantage of the disruption to escalate oil production and drive down prices in a thinly veiled attempt to drive marginal producers in the US and Canada out of business. This has compounded the negative impact on our economy and dramatically intensified the plunge in our stock market.

Many Canadians are now forced to live off their savings or go into debt until employment insurance and other government assistance kicks in, and even when it does, it will not cover 100% of the income loss. The majority of the population has very little savings, so people are resort to drawing on their home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), other credit lines or adding to credit card debt. Businesses are doing the same.

The good news is that people and businesses that already have loans tied to the prime rate are enjoying a significant reduction in their monthly payments. All of the major banks have reduced their prime rates from 3.95% to 2.45%. So people or businesses with floating-rate loans, be they mortgages or HELOCs or commercial lines of credit, have seen their monthly borrowing costs fall by 1.5 percentage points. That helps to reduce the burden of dipping into this source of funds to replace income.

So Why Are Mortgage Rates For New Loans Rising?

These disruptive forces of Covid-19 have markedly reduced the earnings of banks and other lenders and dramatically increased their risk. That is why the stock prices of banks and other publically-traded lenders have fallen very sharply, causing their dividend yields to rise to levels well above government bond yields. As an example, Royal Bank’s stock price has fallen 22% year-to-date (ytd), increasing its annual dividend yield to 5.31%. For CIBC, it has been even worse. Its stock price has fallen 30%, driving its dividend yield to 7.66%. To put this into perspective, the 10-year Government of Canada bond yield is only 0.64%. The gap is a reflection of the investor perception of the risk confronting Canadian banks.

Thus, the cost of funds for banks and other lenders has risen sharply despite the cut in the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate. The cheapest source of funding is short-term deposits–especially savings and chequing accounts. Still, unemployed consumers and shut-down businesses are withdrawing these deposits to pay the rent and put food on the table.

Longer-term deposits called GICs, which stands for Guaranteed Investment Certificates, are a more expensive source of funds. Still, owing to their hefty penalties for early withdrawal, they become a more reliable funding source at a time like this. As noted by Rob Carrick, consumer finance reporter for the Globe and Mail, “GIC rates should be in the toilet right now because that’s what rates broadly do in times of economic stress. But GIC rates follow a similar path to mortgage rates, which have risen lately as lenders price rising default risk into borrowing costs.”

To attract funds, some of the smaller banks have increased their savings and GIC rates. For example, EQ Bank is paying 2.45% on its High-Interest Savings Account and 2.55% on its 5-year GIC. Other small banks are also hiking GIC rates, raising their cost of funds. Rob McLister noted that “The likes of Home Capital, Equitable Bank and Canadian Western Bank have lifted their 1-year GIC rates over 65 bps in the last few weeks, according to data from noted housing analyst Ben Rabidoux.”

The banks are having to set aside funds to cover rising loan loss reserves, which exacerbates their earnings decline. An unusually large component of Canadian bank loan losses is coming from the oil sector. Still, default risk is rising sharply for almost every business, small and large–think airlines, shipping companies, manufacturers, auto dealers, department stores, etc.

Lenders have also been swamped by thousands of applications to defer mortgage payments.

Hence, confronted with rising costs and falling revenues, the banks are tightening their belts. They slashed their prime rates but eliminated the discounts to prime for new variable-rate mortgage loans. Some lenders will no doubt start charging prime plus a premium for such mortgage loans. Banks have also raised fixed-rate mortgage rates as these myriad pressures reducing bank earnings are causing investors to insist banks pay more for the funds they need to remain liquid.

An additional concern is that financial markets have become less and less liquid–sellers cannot find buyers at reasonable prices. The ‘bid-ask’ spreads are widening. That’s why the central bank and CMHC are buying mortgage-backed securities in enormous volumes. That is also why the Bank of Canada has started large-scale weekly buying of government securities and commercial paper. These government entities have become the buyer of last resort, providing liquidity to the mortgage and bond markets.

These markets are crucial to the financial stability of Canada. Large-scale purchases of securities are called “quantitative easing” and have never been used before by the Bank of Canada. It was used extensively by the Fed and other central banks during the 2008-10 financial crisis. When business and consumer confidence is so low that nothing the central bank can do will spur investment and spending, they resort to quantitative easing to keep financial markets functioning. In today’s world, businesses and consumers are locked down, and no one knows when it will end. With so much uncertainty, confidence about the future diminishes. The natural tendency is for people to cancel major expenditures and hunker down.

We are living through an unprecedented period. When the health emergency has passed, we will celebrate a return to a new normal. In the meantime, seemingly odd things will continue to happen in financial markets.

Bank of Canada Moves to Restore “Financial Market Functionality”

General Robyn McLean 27 Mar

From DLC’s Chief Economist, Dr. Sherry Cooper. Important steps towards our financial recovery! 

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¼ percent. This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic (see chart below).

Strains in the commercial paper and government securities markets triggered today’s action to engage in quantitative easing. The Governing Council has been meeting every day during the pandemic crisis. Market illiquidity is a significant problem and one the Bank considers foundational. These large-scale purchases of financial assets are intended to improve the functioning of financial markets.

Credit risk spreads have widened sharply in recent days. People are moving to cash. Liquidity has dried up in all financial markets, even government-guaranteed markets such as Canadian Mortgage-Backed securities (CMBs) and GoC bills and bonds. The commercial paper market–used by businesses for short-term financing–has become nonfunctional. The Bank is making large-scale purchases of financial assets in illiquid markets to improve market functioning across the yield curve. They are not attempting to change the shape of the curve for now but might do so in the future.

These large-scale purchases will create the liquidity that the financial system is demanding so that financial intermediation can function. Risk has risen, which creates the need for more significant cash injections.

At the press conference today, Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins refrained from speculating what other measures the Bank might take in the future. When asked, “Where is the bottom?” She responded, “That depends on the resolution of the Covid-19 health issues.”

The Bank will discuss the economic outlook in its Monetary Policy Report at their regularly scheduled meeting on April 15. In response to questions, Governor Poloz said it is challenging to assess what the impact of the shutdown of the economy will be. A negative cycle of pessimism is clearly in place. The Bank’s rate cuts help to reduce monthly payments on floating rate debt. He is hoping to maintain consumer confidence and expectations of a return to normalcy.

The oil price cut alone would have been sufficient reason for the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates. The Covid-19 medical emergency and the shutdown dramatically exacerbates the situation. All that monetary policy can do is to cushion the blow and avoid structural problems to the economy. The overnight rate of 0.25% is consistent with market rates along the yield curve.

High household debt levels have historically been a concern. Monetary policy easing helps to bridge the gap until the health concerns are resolved. The housing market, according to Wilkins, is no longer a concern for excessive borrowing by cash-strapped households.

At this point, the Bank is not contemplating negative interest rates. Monetary policy has little further room to maneuver, given interest rates are already very low. With businesses closed, lower interest rates do not encourage consumers to go out and spend money.

Large-scale debt purchases by the Bank will continue for an extended period to provide liquidity. The Bank can do this in virtually unlimited quantities as needed. The policymakers are also focussing on the period after the crisis. They want the economy to have an excellent foundation for growth when the economy resumes its normal functioning.

Fiscal stimulus is crucial at this time. The newly introduced income support for people who are not covered by the Employment Insurance system is a particularly important safety net for the economy. There are many other elements of the fiscal stimulus, and the government stands ready to do more as needed.

The Canadian dollar has moved down on the Bank’s latest emergency action. The loonie has also been battered by the dramatic decline in oil prices. Canada is getting a double whammy from the pandemic and the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The loonie’s decline feeds through to rising prices of imports. However, the pandemic has disrupted trade and imports have fallen.

The Bank of Canada suggested as well that they are meeting twice a week with the leadership of the Big-Six Banks. The cost of funds for the banks has risen sharply. CMHC is buying large volumes of mortgages from the banks, which, along with CMB purchases by the central bank, will shore up liquidity. The banks are well-capitalized and robust. The level of collaboration between the Bank of Canada and the Big Six is very high.
The Stock Market Has Had Three Good Days

As the chart below shows, the Toronto Stock Exchange has retraced some of its losses in the past three days as the US and Canada have announced very aggressive fiscal stimulus. As well, the Bank of Canada has now lowered interest rates three times this month, with a cumulative easing of 1.5 percentage points. The Federal Reserve has also cut by 150 basis points over the same period. In addition to lowering borrowing costs, the central bank has also announced in recent days a slew of new liquidity measures to inject cash into the banking system and money markets and to ensure it can handle any market-wide stresses in the financial system.

The economic pain is just getting started in Canada with the spike in joblessness and the shutdown of all but essential services. Similarly, the US posted its highest level of initial unemployment insurance claims in history–3.83 million, which compares to a previous high of 685,000 during the financial crisis just over a decade ago. These are the earliest indicator of a virus-slammed economy, with much more to come. All of this is without precedent, but rest assured that policy leaders will continue to do whatever it takes to cushion the blow of the pandemic on consumers and businesses and to bridge a return to normalcy.

Covid-19 and Real Estate

General Robyn McLean 27 Mar

How May COVID-19 Impact Real Estate Prices?

The last two weeks have ushered in a time of financial and public health uncertainty that’s unprecedented for many Canadians. As governments enact measures to keep the public safe from COVID-19 community spread, with the closing of schools, small businesses, and other non-essential services, many are questioning what the economic impact will be for all, from individuals to entire industries.

While we all do our part to “flatten the curve” by working remotely if possible, avoiding gathering in public, and going out only on a need-to basis, businesses that require an in-person approach are having to make drastic changes to continue to operate – and that includes the real estate industry.

The home buying and selling process typically requires a personal connection between real estate agents and their clients; from the first in-person meeting to discuss their needs, to the viewing of open houses and delivery of deposit funds, real estate transactions are typically hands on.

However, while real estate brokerages and agent services have been considered “essential services” in some provinces including Ontario, the strong recommendation from municipal and provincial real estate bodies is to stop operations altogether in order to comply with best social distancing practices. This comes after a call last week to cancel all open houses, and make all showings virtual, to be conducted on an only as-needed basis. As well, it has been strongly discouraged to show homes that are currently tenanted.

The bottom line is, as long as these health risks are present, it’s widely expected that anyone without an urgent need to buy or sell a home will put their real estate ambitions on hold for the time being. That bodes a lot of questions for the market in general; what will be the immediate impact? When the threat of COVID-19 dissipates, will prospective home buyers still be there to pick the market back up?

To get an idea of how COVID-19 could shape the housing market in the short- and long-term, let’s take a look at a similar scenario that led to slower market conditions.

A Look Back at the 2008 – 2009 Recession

Though the circumstances are very different, the closest economic event that’s comparable to the impact of COVID-19 is the 2008 – 2009 global recession, which was spurred by mass defaults in mortgage debt and resulted in similar monetary policy moves from central banks to mitigate the damage, along with bank bailouts and stock market upheaval. While Canada has been lauded for fiscally weathering that recession better than many nations, home prices did see a drop during its deepest crevice, between the springs of 2008 and 2009.

According to analysis by Zoocasa, benchmark real estate prices dipped across the nation during this time period by -8%, from $370,900 to $341,700. The drop was most pronounced in the Greater Vancouver real estate market, which experienced a -14% decline, from $575,400 to $497,000. Losses remained under double-digit percentages for Toronto homes for sale, down -6% from $367,100 to $344,900.

However, as anyone who has been witness to the Canadian housing market over the last decade can attest, these losses were largely contained to the period of economic downturn, with enormous growth seen between January 2008 – February 2020. Canada-wide, home values have surged 75%, from $362,300 to $634,300, while gains were even more pronounced in the largest urban centres. Vancouver home prices rose 82% from $560,500 to today’s searing price tag of $1,020,600, while Toronto home prices were up a whopping 135% from $359,500 to $846,100.

What’s Next for the Market? Reason for Post-COVID Optimism

While it’s impossible to predict just how long COVID-19 will impact the economy, Lauren Haw, Zoocasa’s CEO and Broker of Record, points out that the fundamentals of the housing market, especially in large cities such as Toronto and Vancouver, generally don’t change. “There has long been a lot of pent-up buyer demand in these markets, particularly due to a long-term lack of inventory,” she says. “Combined with continued population growth in these regions, it’s expected that the market will experience a strong bounce back once the health risks have subsided, and buyers return to the market with restored purchasing power.”

Renters – Need To Know

General Robyn McLean 26 Mar

Some valuable information if you’re a renter right now struggling to pay your rent due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

If you are renting in Canada currently, you may be facing some uncertainties about your future amid the COVID-19 pandemic – especially with the start of a new month on the horizon. Provincial governments are currently rolling out plans to help renters during this time:

British Columbia: The B.C. government has imposed a moratorium on residential evictions. In addition, they will be providing renters with up to $500 per month for the next four months to help you manage your rent payments. Premier John Horgan also announced a provincial freeze on rental increases during this time.

Alberta: Alberta currently is considering a short term stay on eviction enforcement but no plan has been made as of yet.

Manitoba: Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister has postponed all hearings for non-urgent matters to avoid evictions resulting from non-payment of rent. In addition, any rent increases scheduled to take effect on April 1 or later are being suspended.

Saskatchewan: No COVID-19 rental policies currently in place.

Ontario: Ontario has suspended eviction orders resulting from non-payment of rent until further notice. Further, plans are in development.

Quebec: Has suspended most eviction hearings amid COVID-19.

Nova Scotia: Has banned evictions resulting from non-payment of rent.

Prince Edward Island: Has banned evictions resulting from non-payment of rent.

Northwest Territories: Has banned evictions resulting from non-payment of rent.

Please Note: If you are currently struggling to make your rent payments due to job or income loss caused by COVID-19, there may be additional options available to you.
ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL MEASURES

In addition to helping homeowners manage their finances through deferred mortgage payments and adjustments, the Canadian Government has also come to the aid of families who may be struggling currently.

To help those currently struggling, the following measures are being taken or have already been implemented:

  • Income Tax Payments: The Canada Revenue Agency will allow all taxpayers to defer payments for any income tax amounts that are owing between March 18, 2020 and September 2020 until August 31, 2020. No interest or penalties will accumulate on these amounts during this period.
    • Taxpayers who are required to remit quarterly installments may benefit from up to 5 months of tax deferral.
  • Income Tax Filing: Income tax return filing has been extended one month from April 30, 2020 until June 1, 2020.
    • If you receive and rely on the GST credit or the Canada Child Benefit, it is still ideal to file sooner to ensure that the entitlements for the 2020-2021 benefit year are not delayed.
    • For trusts with a December 31, 2019 year-end, the tax return filing due date has been extended to May 1, 2020 (from March 30, 2020)
  • Registered Retirement Income Funds (RRIFs): The required minimum withdrawals from RRIFs will be reduced by 25% for the 2020 tax year.

In addition, the Canada Revenue Agency is adapting their Outreach Program in order to better support individuals during COVID-19. This service allows the CRA to offer assistance to ensure individuals understand their tax obligations and to help them obtain the benefits and credits to which they are entitled.

COVID-19 UPDATES & WHAT HOMEOWNERS NEED TO KNOW

General Robyn McLean 19 Mar

At Dominion Lending Centres, we are deeply concerned about the Coronavirus – and we know you are too. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all the families and front line workers that are dealing with this around the world.

We recognize that many homeowners may be looking for guidance around mortgage financing. We are committed to updating you – our customers – on the current climate and how the recent COVID-19 developments may impact your mortgage, now or in the future. We know that things may seem uncertain now, but we are working hard to gather all pertinent information and help you to understand your options during this difficult time.

Please check back regularly to get additional and updated information as more details arise.

What is COVID-19?

As many of you have heard by now, the world is being gripped by COVID-19 (otherwise known as “Coronavirus”). According to the World Health Organization (W.H.O.), Coronaviruses (CoV) is a large family of viruses ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a new strain that was discovered in 2019 and has not been previously identified in humans. Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death.

Standard recommendations to prevent infection spread include regular hand washing, covering mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, thoroughly cooking meat and eggs. Avoid close contact with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness such as coughing and sneezing.

UPDATE 1: FINANCIAL EFFECTS

Since being labeled a pandemic per the World Health Organization (W.H.O.), the effects of COVID-19 have begun to ripple through the world’s economy – including Canada – and causing a number of different effects. To help keep you up to date on what is going on financially, we have compiled a list of recent announcements by the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Canada, and OSFI:

  • Minister Morneau announced a new Business Credit Availability Program, adding $10 billion of additional support financing, through Business Development Bank of Canada and Export Development Canada, to support Canadian Businesses.
  • The Bank of Canada lowered the overnight rate from 125 to 75 bps, to reduce the interest cost burden for businesses and consumers alike. The bank also increased its Government of Canada bond buyback program.
  • OSFI reduced the Domestic Stability Buffer from 2.25% to 1%, thereby freeing up $300 Billion additional lending capacity for Domestic Systemically Important Banks (D-SIBS).

In addition, Dominion Lending Centres in-house Chief Economic Advisor, Dr. Sherry Cooper, has been providing in-depth information on this situation as it evolves. You can find her latest articles on the situation below:

UPDATE 2: HOMEOWNER NEED TO KNOW

This can be a difficult time for a homeowner as many families are self-isolating or are in quarantine due to the virus. This can result in loss of monthly income and financial instability, which can cause stress and concern about your home and mortgage. Dominion Lending Centres understands this and we are making it our number one priority to be here for you.

We have compiled the following information from our partners to keep you informed as to some of the recent developments surrounding mortgages, as well as what lenders are doing to help mitigate financial strain during this difficult time.

Here are a few important considerations for homeowners and potential homeowners to keep in mind during this time:

  • Mortgage application turnaround time may be an upwards of 15 days in some cases given the current climate and growing developments.
  • If you require an appraisal, there can be issues that could delay or prevent access of the appraiser into the home. Lenders are being proactive and exploring policy options to help circumvent this as best they can.
  • Don’t forget this situation is new to our mortgage brokers and lenders as well as the rest of us, so they are being cautious yet innovating to overcome any issues.
  • Rush transactions will be met with challenges.

THE STRESS TEST

In lieu of this growing situation, OSFI has announced that it is suspending all consultations, including those regarding changes to the proposed B-20 benchmark rate. In addition, the Minister of Finance postponed the announced April 6th qualification change for insured mortgages. In short, until further notice, the Bank of Canada posted a 5-year rate will continue to be used for mortgage qualification.

UPDATE 3: WHAT LENDERS ARE DOING

We understand that the COVID-19 outbreak is taking a toll on families across the country with many parents being out of work or quarantined. As an industry built on homeowners, many of our major lenders have pulled together to provide you beneficial options during this time and help alleviate some of the financial stress.

Depending on your lender, there may be options available to you during this time such as:

  • Deferral of payments
  • Re-amortization of the loan
  • Capitalization of outstanding interest & costs
  • Special payment arrangements

The Big Banks

Big banks including Royal Bank of Canada (RBC), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD), Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank), Bank of Montreal (BMO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) and National Bank of Canada have opted to provide coordinated relief for their customers.

These banks will be working with personal and small business clients to cope with the economic fallout of the virus. Effective immediately, all six are introducing mortgage payment deferrals of up to (6) months and are also offering relief on other credit products for those families who are facing hardship during this situation.

Mortgage Insurers

In addition to the big banks, mortgage insurers including CMHC, Genworth & Canada Guaranty are working to help homeowners who have been financially impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak. Starting now, they have increased their flexibility and are allowing payment deferral of up to 6 months for home-owners who, primarily but not exclusively, purchased with less than 20% down.

GENWORTH CANADA

Genworth Canada released a statement on March 16, 2020 outlining their Homeowner Assistance Program (HOAP), which is designed to assist Genworth Canada-insured homeowners who experience sudden financial setbacks that could temporarily impact their ability to meet their mortgage obligations. Borrowers who qualify under the lender’s internal guidelines and Genworth’s Homeowner Assistance Program will receive up to six (6) months of relief allowing borrowers some time to recover and focus on what’s important.

CANADIAN MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION (CMHC)

Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is offering tools that can assist homeowners who may be experiencing financial difficulty. Their default management tools include: payment deferral, loan re-amortization, capitalization of outstanding interest arrears and other eligible expenses and special payment arrangements.

CMHC also provides mortgage professionals with tools and the flexibility to make timely decisions when working with you to find a solution to your unique financial situation, including:

  • Converting a variable interest rate mortgage to a fixed interest rate mortgage in order to protect you from a sudden interest rate increase, should one occur.
  • Offering a temporary short-term payment deferral. Your mortgage professional may be prepared to offer greater payment flexibilities, particularly if previous lump-sum prepayments have been made, or if you have previously chosen an accelerated payment schedule.
  • Extending the original repayment period (amortization) in order to lower your monthly mortgage payments.
  • Adding any missed payments (arrears) to the mortgage balance and spreading them over the remaining mortgage repayment period.
  • Offering a special payment arrangement unique to your particular financial situation.

CANADA GUARANTY

In addition to Genworth Canada and CMHC, Canada Guaranty is also doing their part to support homeowners during this difficult time. Per their statement released on March 16, 2020 they noted with their Homeownership Solutions Program, lenders currently have the ability to capitalize up to four (4) monthly mortgage payments.

However, to assist eligible homeowners as they navigate through these challenging circumstances, Canada Guaranty is prepared to extend this program option to allow the capitalization of up to a maximum of six (6) monthly payments. This is assuming the original insured loan amount is not exceeded, request for capitalization is received before September 13, 2020 and that the lender confirms the capitalization is being applied reasonably to help mitigate short-term financial difficulty resulting from COVID-19.

Lender Contact Information

During this time, it is best to discuss your mortgage with your mortgage broker or lender should you have any financial concerns surrounding the COVID-19 outbreak. Please be advised, there may be longer than normal wait times for calls during this situation and to expect at least 20-30 minutes for a representative. Be sure to have your mortgage number available to ensure smoother service and remember to be kind!

Here are some direct contact numbers for various lenders across the country:

LENDERS CONTACT #
ATB 1-800-332-8383
B2B 1-800-263-8349
Bank of Montreal 1-877-895-3278
Bridgewater 1-866-243-4301
Chinook Financial 403-934-3358
CIBC 1-800-465-2422
CMLS Financial 1-888-995-2657
Connect First 403-520-8000
Equitable 1-866-407-0004
First Calgary Financial 403-736-4000
First National 1-888-488-0794
Haventree 1-855-727-0051
Home Trust 1-855-270-3630
HomeEquity Bank 1-866-331-2447
HSBC 1-888-310-4722
ICICI 1-888-424-2422
Manulife 1-800-268-6195
Marathon 1-855-503-6060
MCAP 1-866-809-5800
Merix 1-877-637-4911
National Bank 1-888-835-6281
Optimum 1-866-441-3775
RFA 1-877-416-7873
RMG 1-866-809-5800
Royal Bank 1-800-768-2511
Scotiabank 1-800-472-6842
Servus 1-877-378-8728
Street Capital 1-866-683-8090
TD 1-888-720-0075

 

UPDATE 4: WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CLOSINGS?

If you are currently in the process of purchasing or selling a home, we have taken the liberty of gathering information surrounding real estate transactions during this COVID-19 situation.

Land Registry Offices Remaining Open – For Now

Currently, there are no plans to close the LROs. This may change, but currently, LROs may be working with reduced staff and will likely prioritize services required for closings (over-rides, pre-approvals, PIN corrections, etc.)

Banks Are Remaining Open – For Now

All of Canada’s major banks have indicated an intention to remain open. Similar to other businesses, the banks may be working with reduced staff or locations and there may be delays in processing requests.

Tarion
Tarion issued an Advisory on Friday confirming that the builder repair period has been suspended until April 13, 2020, and that homeowners may refuse access and builders may refuse to perform after-sales services during the COVID-19 pandemic without penalty.

Client Meetings
Due to the focus on self-isolation and preventing further spread of COVID-19, there may be issues with clients not being able to meet with lawyers/notaries – or vice versa. Remote meetings are still a great option during this time (both in real estate and for your mortgage professional) and can be held via phone or video conference with a plan to provide any sworn documents at a later date. If you do meet in-person, don’t shake hands, sit as far apart as possible and be sure to wash your hands after leaving any unfamiliar environments.

Municipalities
There have been recommendations that people limit in-person interactions, work from home if possible and not go out for ‘non-essential’ reasons. It is now very possible that municipalities may close their offices or work with reduced staff and that delays in receiving compliance information, permits and municipal agreements may be experienced.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOUR CLOSINGS?

If either the LRO or the banks close, then real estate transactions will not be able to proceed and you would need to seek extensions wherever possible. The good news is that everyone is in the same situation! The bad news is that there is no right in most re-sale agreements to insist on an extension, however, most people are understanding and you will have to rely on their goodness as well as common law principles to extend the transaction.

UPDATE 5: WHAT CAN YOU DO?

If you find yourself facing financial difficulties as a result of job loss or income reduction during this time, it can be overwhelming and may leave you feeling stressed and unsure of what the next steps are.

To make it easy, we have put together three simple steps you can do to help resolve your financial difficulties and ensure you can focus on more important things such as your family and your health.

  1. Talk to Your Mortgage Professional…that’s me!
    Your Dominion Lending Centres mortgage brokers are working hard to stay on top of all information surrounding the development of COVID-19 as well as the responses from Bank of Canada and the Ministry of Finance to ensure the most up-to-date and accurate information to assist you. They can help explain the options available to you and provide further understanding as to how this situation may affect your interest rates and mortgage payments.
  2. Clarify the Financial Picture
    In order to benefit from your mortgage professional, you will need to provide detailed financial accounts so they can review your situation and all potential options. Preparing a detailed budget breakdown – including credit cards, loans and household bills as well as savings accounts and investments – will help your broker get a better sense of your current financial position and what assistance you may qualify for.
  3. Stay Informed
    Information is power and the more information you have at your disposal as this situation develops, the better prepared you will be to manage your household and finances. We will be providing updated information right here on our website as this situation develops.
UPDATE 6: STAY SAFE – AND WASH YOUR HANDS!

Remember during this time to practice proper hand-washing procedures and minimize your contact with other people to ensure that you are not unknowingly contracting or passing along COVID-19. We can overcome this, together.

Fed Cuts Overnight Rate One Percentage Point But Markets Plummet

General Robyn McLean 17 Mar

Information is power, particulary in such tumultuous times. DLC’s Chief Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper offers her insights. 

Fed Cuts Overnight Rate One Percentage Point But Markets Plummet
In an unprecedented Sunday afternoon meeting, the US Federal Reserve cut their key policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to a level of 0%-to-0.25% (see chart below). Also, the Committee announced increased access to the discount window where the Fed makes loans to banks. The Fed is the lender-of-last-resort and is signalling that it will provide liquidity wherever needed. As well, with interest rates already so low, the Fed is well aware that rate cuts can only do so much. Thus, they are returning to quantitative easing–the buying of large volumes of U.S. government Treasury bills and bonds as well as mortgage-backed securities (MBS), to inject liquidity into the financial system.

The Treasury and US MBS markets are usually the deepest, most liquid markets in the world. But over the past two weeks, liquidity has dried up. Financial instability has risen sharply with the high level of volatility. Banks have experienced significant withdrawals as consumers are hoarding cash like everything else. The cost of funds to banks has risen sharply because of the enhanced perception of risk. With the collapse in oil prices, banks exposed to the oil sector are building up reserves for nonperforming loans. As businesses everywhere in nearly every sector shutdown, the risk of delinquencies rises further. Consumers who are housebound spend less money, and those who are freelancers or hourly wage earners might not get paid. Moreover, the shuttering of schools puts an added burden on parents who have no other daycare options for their kids.

All of this disruption, which according to the Center for Disease Control, could last months–the CDC recommended yesterday the shutdown of meetings of more than 50 people for eight weeks–has led to rising concern about the riskiness of banks. Bank shares have plummeted, and the yields on bank bonds have surged. Besides, banks and other mortgage lenders are fearful of being inundated with requests for refinancings, especially in the US, where penalties for breaking a mortgage are much lower than in Canada. Because of the refinancing surge in the US, the price of MBSs has fallen sharply, raising their yields and making the market highly illiquid.

The rising risk premiums, likely recession and illiquidity are causing banks in Canada and the US to raise some mortgage rates. Lenders are tightening the discount off the prime rate on variable-rate mortgage loans. Some fixed rates have edged higher as well. Such spread widening between mortgage rates and government yields happened during the financial crisis. Bank balance sheets will expand as troubled businesses and consumers extend their borrowings on their open lines of credit. Many will be unable to make timely interest payments. Loan loss reserves, already climbing, will rise further. Liquid deposits will be depleted as many are forced to live off of savings while shying away from selling stocks at markedly depressed prices.

These are not normal times. The Fed’s actions did nothing to calm markets. Indeed, stocks and bond yields plummeted in overnight trade, and the stock markets opened sharply lower in North America. The S&P 500 opened down over 8% while the TSX opened down 11%, triggering a circuit-breaker time out. This is the third time in a week the circuit breaker has hit. The TSX is down roughly 35% from its recent high (see chart below). The S&P 500 is down over 20%. The relative underperfomance of the Canadian stock market reflects our out-sized representation of the energy sector. The two weakest sectors in the TSX are the energy and financial sectors.

The world knows that the Fed and other central banks are running out of ammunition. Governor Powell said yesterday that he would not take the key fed funds rate into negative territory but instead would use “forward guidance” and asset purchases (quantitative easing) going forward.

The good news is that the banks are highly capitalized and much more resilient than during the financial crisis. Central banks since that time have put in place measures to monitor financial stability. Last Friday, the Canadian Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) reduced the capital requirements for Canadian banks to free up $300 billion for banks to support troubled borrowers. OSFI warned against the use of these funds to buy back stocks or raise dividends.

OSFI also suspended the proposed revision in the qualifying mortgage rate slated to begin April 6. The posted mortgage rate, published weekly by the Bank of Canada, will remain the qualifying mortgage rate. It is currently 5.19%, but it is expected to fall this week to around 4.95%.

But in these extraordinary times, there is a loss of confidence in the financial system. Some are calling for a full shutdown of the stock markets–but imagine the panic if no one could sell assets. There would truly be a run on the banks. Now is not a time to panic.

The Canadian Housing Market

The Canadian Real Estate Association announced this morning that home sales recorded over the Canadian MLS Systems rose 5.9% in February, marking one of the more substantial month-over-month gains of the past decade. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity stood 26.9% above year-ago levels–keeping in mind that activity was quite weak one year ago. February 2019 marked a decade-low for the month, so a good part of the significant y-o-y gain reflects low levels of activity recorded at the time. February 2020 also benefited from an additional day due to the leap year.

The CREA President, Jason Stephen, said, “Home prices are accelerating in markets where listings are in increasingly short supply, specifically in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes which together account for about two-thirds of national sales activity. Meanwhile, ample supply across the Prairies and in Newfoundland and Labrador means increased competition among sellers.”

The number of newly listed homes jumped 7.3% in February compared to January, more than erasing the declines of late last year. New supply gains were posted in some large markets, including the Fraser Valley, Calgary, Edmonton, the GTA, Hamilton-Burlington, Kitchener-Waterloo, Windsor-Essex, Ottawa and Montreal.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) rose 0.7% in February 2020 compared to January, marking its ninth consecutive monthly gain. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in February 2020 was around $540,000, up 15.2% from the same month the previous year. See the table below for the regional move in prices.

But this is old news, particularly given all that has happened in the past two weeks. What comes next for the housing market? That depends on the course of the pandemic. Lower interest rates would typically be great news for the housing market, particularly for first-time homebuyers. But social distancing is hardly consistent with open houses and home shopping.

Moreover, volatility and instability reduce consumer confidence. Buyers that parked their downpayment savings in the stock markets have lost nearly a third of their money on paper. And how many sellers want a trail of strangers wandering through their homes during the pandemic. So the housing market, like everything else, is likely going to slow over the near term.

The Bank of Canada is hopeful that its rate cuts will stabilize the housing market from what might have otherwise been a substantial shutdown. Lower rates will filter through to lower monthly payments for floating-rate mortgage borrowers. Expect the Bank to cut rates again to near-zero levels, following in the footsteps of the Fed. So far, as of this writing, the Canadian banks have not responded to Friday’s BoC rate cut. The prime rate went down a full 50 bps on March 5 after the Bank cut its key rate by that amount on March 4. But so far, the Big-Six banks have not responded to the 75 bps cut three days ago.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

COVID-19: How to Keep Your Home Clean and Safe

General Robyn McLean 15 Mar

Some good tips on keeping your family safe at home from our friends at REW.

Taking steps to combat COVID-19 are habits for year-round health
By Catherine Musgrove Mar 13, 2020

COVID-19 or the Coronavirus is undoubtedly challenging to ignore. It is the topic of conversation with every social encounter, and it is the leading news story on all the stations. It is washing over our newsfeeds every few seconds. With all the hype and talk of the pandemic, now more than ever, stay calm and, well, clean.

We’ve heard the best defence against COVID-19 is hand washing. While that is true, there are other things you can be doing on the home front to battle this beast. Let’s take a look at some of the top measures.

The spread of COVID-19 is primarily from invisible respiratory droplets that fly through the air when a sick person coughs or sneezes. Others inhale these droplets, and they land on surfaces. When a person touches the surface, they become infected when they feel their eyes, nose, or mouth.

It would only make sense to clean the surfaces in our home to ensure maximum defence against the virus. But, will your favourite go-to cleaner do the trick?

Bleach is the Bomb – But Use it Wisely

Studies show common household disinfectants, including soap or diluted bleach solutions, can deactivate coronaviruses on indoor surfaces.

The Centre for Disease Control (CDC) recommends using a mixture of bleach and water to disinfect floors. They suggest 1 cup of bleach mixed with 5 gallons of water to mop your floors is the most effective. Although this is one way to go, be careful when using bleach to disinfect.

Studies have shown that bleach is highly irritating to mucous membranes. People exposed to bleach fumes are at risk of respiratory troubles, among other ailments. So, although it works, use it sparingly.

Vinegar Is Versatile – and Very Affordable

If you are looking for something a little less harsh – and very affordable, vinegar may be an option. It is an all-natural disinfectant that contains acetic acid. Choose plain old white distilled vinegar. And while you are at it, you can use a vinegar spray on your fruits and vegetables to help kill germs and wash away potential pesticides.

It’s perfect for doorknobs, mirrors, porcelain, and most surfaces.

Hydrogen Peroxide is Persistent

Hydrogen Peroxide is not just for treating cuts and scrapes. It can also be used as a general household cleaner too. Make sure you store it in a dark container away from sunlight as the light will destroy its beneficial properties. The CDC reports that 3% hydrogen peroxide was able to inactivate rhinovirus within eight minutes. When you pour the substance directly on surfaces like your sink, countertops or toilets, you’ll need to let it soak for around 10-15 minutes to give it time to do its job completely. After you let it sit, scrub the area and then rinse with water.

Don’t forget about the germs on your toothbrush! You can use hydrogen peroxide to keep it fresh.

Tea Tree Oil is the Talk of the Town

Seriously. Ten years ago, people barely heard of essential oils. Now they are being used to treat a variety of ailments. Tea Tree Oil is versatile and can e used in a variety of situations. It is also known as Melaleuca Oil is one of the best natural alternatives to harsh cleaners. www.cdc.gov/disasters/bleach.html it’s a great household cleaner when mixed with water. Because it’s extremely concentrated, all you need is a few drops mixed with water to create an effective disinfectant. Mix it in a spray bottle and use on countertops, tile, door handles, sinks, toilets. It is even effective on soft surfaces.

Bonus Tip: tea tree oil is excellent for making your own hand sanitizer, disinfecting areas where pets may have had an accident or where kids may have gotten sick. There is no end to where you can use this natural powerhouse.

Disinfectant Wipes Are A Quick Defence

In a hurry? Use disinfectant wipes to go over surfaces quickly. Phones, doorknobs, sinks, cabinet handles, refrigerator doors, remote controls – the surfaces you touch most often in your home are a magnet for germs. Wipe down a couple of times a day. For the best results, let the surface air dry to kill any lingering bacteria or viruses. Tip: Don’t have any wipes? Make your own by spraying a paper towel with a tea tree oil mixture.

Sprays are Spot on

For soft surfaces like sofas and carpets, a disinfectant spray will do the trick (most stores and pharmacies carry 70% alcohol spray). It would also work on mattresses, countertops or tables. A broad sweeping spray works best. Let dry before you walk, sit, or use the surface.

For more safe product information, the Environmental Protection Agency has a list of disinfectants that have shown to be effective in fighting coronaviruses.

And remember, during these uncertain times, remain calm and clean.

WHY GET A PRE-LISTING HOME INSPECTION?

General Robyn McLean 10 Mar

Planning to sell? Here’s a valuable tip from our friends at Pillar to Post.

inspection

A pre-listing home inspection can uncover previously unknown problems – major and minor – allowing your sellers the opportunity to make repairs, updates or replacements as needed or as they wish.

By addressing issues before the home goes on the market, you can list a home with greater confidence about its condition. This can mean cleaner offers and a smoother transaction for both parties. And a home in better condition will normally sell for more than one with problems that could have been corrected.

Homes that are already on the market can be at a disadvantage if problems are revealed during a subsequent home inspection. Issues that you and the seller were previously unaware of could keep a property from selling at its highest potential price, when it’s too late to address them.

The Pillar To Post Home Inspection includes a comprehensive report, complete with photos, printed on-site so there’s no waiting for results. With this valuable information in hand, your sellers can decide on next steps prior to listing. In the end, having well-informed sellers and buyers will work to everyone’s advantage, including yours.

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