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The current state of affairs for Lower Mainland Real Estate from my always insightful friend & Chief Economist at Dexter Realty, Kevin Skipworth.

The Real Story on Greater Vancouver’s Housing Supply

With the federal election come and gone, a fall market in full swing and COVID-19 cases starting to come down one would have thought we would see some kind of increase in the number of new listings and active listings in the Greater Vancouver real estate market. But alas, quite the opposite. The well has become much drier. Instead of climbing above 10,000 active listings in Greater Vancouver we are now close to dropping below 9,000. That is extremely rarified air for the market at this time of year, the lowest we’ve seen in over 30 years. The trend of fall markets is typically seeing the activity wind down as we move through October and as the Holiday season approaches. While we don’t have snow to contend with here in Metro Vancouver, the atmospheric river we’ve just been through doesn’t make it enticing to be out wandering the home circuit. But the real storm right now is a true lack of homes available, and that is what is stifling the real estate market the most.

At the start of September active listings in Greater Vancouver were at 9,239 and by mid-September that had increased to 9,811. We are now at 9,161 total active listings. Much lower than the 13,670 active listings there were at the mid-point of October last year. In October 1995 there were 17,422 active listings in Greater Vancouver! Considering Canadian Census records show that the number of private dwellings has grown by over 26% since 2001, that clearly indicates real estate is not being flipped – people are holding on to the real estate they buy. One would think that a measured increase in the number of private dwellings in Metro Vancouver would equate to a similar increase in the number of active listings for sale. Not the case at all. This is something government should think about when creating policy around housing and the way it is sold. Measures to control demand typically interfere with the motivation to sell. So, if more supply is needed, then perhaps a carrot to entice selling is needed rather than a stick to control demand.

Of course, without homes to purchase, sellers are also hesitant to come on the market when they need to find their next home to move to and fear they won’t. Is the message getting through to government that a concentrated effort is needed to supply more homes in the market? Time will tell, but the current count of active listings tells us that there just are not enough homes available for today’s population. And with British Columbia being one of the leading provinces in population growth from within Canada and internationally, where is everyone going to live?

So far in October there have been 1,767 properties sold in Greater Vancouver, compared with 1,477 at the mid-point of September and slightly up from 1,741 at mid-month last October. After seeing sales in September down 14% year-over-year, October this year has pivoted to keep pace with last October. But what’s telling is that the number of new listings coming on the market this year is down 26% year-over-year so far in October. That’s not going to help with all those buyers currently out looking. New listings so far in October are at 2,231 which is down from the 2,897 at the mid-point of September. While we tend to see less homes come on the market in October, it appears to be exacerbated this year.

The takeaways from October so far

Sellers are continuing to list less! Looking regionally around Greater Vancouver, here’s what we’ve seen so far.

East Vancouver sales are significantly above where September was at mid-month – with townhouses sales continuing strong but with far fewer new listings so far almost every new townhome listing is selling.

Over in North Vancouver, the number of active listings for detached homes is quickly declining with buyers being more active this month and less new listings coming on the market. The number of sales for townhomes has been less so far, but a lack of available homes is continuing to stifle that market.

Detached home sales in West Vancouver are on pace to be the highest since April, and with the highest sales-to-listings ratio since February active, as a result the number of active listings is dropping.

Richmond sales continue on a tear with the number of sales so far in October higher than September this year and October last year at mid-month. Active listings in Richmond are continuing their decline, especially the townhouse segment of the market.

Running through Greater Vancouver, the number of townhouses available for sale continues to be at all-time lows and can’t get much lower. Imagine shopping for a townhouse in Ladner with there still only being 7 currently available for sale.

Shifting over to detached homes, it’s been a more pronounced decline in active listings so far in October, with the mid-month total down 7% compared to the same period in September. With detached sales 31% higher at mid-month compared to September and new listings down 22%, we can see why there are far fewer detached homes on the market.

Apartments are seeing a similar trend, with active listings down 5% and sales up 21% and new listings down 24%. As is typically the case, the spring and fall markets are the busiest in real estate, this year is proving no different – we just need it to be busier on the listing side.

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

Greater Vancouver – 1,767 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 1,477 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 1,393 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 1,692 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 1,741 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 2,231 compared to 2,897 at this point in September 2021, 1,967 at this point in August 2021, 2,491 at this point in July 2021 and 3,060 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 9,161 compared to 13,670 at this time last year and 9,811 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 79% compared to 51% at September 15, 2021 and 57% at mid-month in October 2020.

Vancouver West – 295 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 254 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 246 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 262 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 258 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 534 compared to 730 at this point in September 2021, 453 at this point in August 2021, 490 at this point in July 2021 and 630 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 2,498 compared to 2,878 at this time last year and 2,576 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is a 55% compared to 35% at September 15, 2021 and 41% at mid-month in October 2020.

Vancouver East – 204 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 162 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 135 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 171 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 192 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 255 compared to 361 at this point in September 2021, 226 at this point in August 2021, 299 at this point in July 2021 and 395 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 1,043 compared to 1,422 at this time last year and 1,134 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 80% compared to 45% at September 15, 2021 and 49% at mid-month in October 2020.

North Vancouver – 118 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 87 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 98 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 118 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 155 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 160 compared to 203 at this point in September 2021, 119 at this point in August 2021, 273 at this point in July 2021 and 246 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 487 compared to 899 at this time last year and 486 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 74% compared to 43% at September 15, 2021 and 63% at mid-month in October 2020.

West Vancouver – 49 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 33 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 25 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 44 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 47 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 87 compared to 115 at this point in September 2021, 61 at this point in August 2021, 97 at this point in July 2021 and 47 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 529 compared to 647 at this time last year and 555 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 56% compared to 29% at September 15, 2021 and 44% at mid-month in October 2020.

Richmond – 234 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 203 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 191 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 207 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 173 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 284 compared to 317 at this point in September 2021, 247 at this point in August 2021, 333 at this point in July 2021 and 325 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 1,252 compared to 1,737 at this time last year and 1,332 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 82% compared to 64% at September 15, 2021 and 53% at mid-month in October 2020.

Burnaby East – 23 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 22 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 14 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 25 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 22 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 70 compared to 27 at this point in September 2021, 26 at this point in August 2021, 37 at this point in July 2021 and 27 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 70 compared to 141 at this time last year and 81 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 110% compared to 81% at September 15, 2021 and 67% at mid-month in October 2020.

Burnaby North – 87 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 72 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 78 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 95 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 84 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 102 compared to 167 at this point in September 2021, 127 at this point in August 2021, 139 at this point in July 2021 and 165 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 419 compared to 651 at this time last year and 493 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 85% compared to 43% at September 15, 2021 and 51% at mid-month in October 2020.

Burnaby South – 103 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 106 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 84 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 103 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 72 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 126 compared to 154 at this point in September 2021, 148 at this point in August 2021, 148 at this point in July 2021 and 157 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 506 compared to 771 at this time last year and 536 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 82% compared to 69% at September 15, 2021 and 46% at mid-month in October 2020.

New Westminster – 90 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 56 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 64 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 94 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 72 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 86 compared to 123 at this point in September 2021, 149 at this point in August 2021, 106 at this point in July 2021 and 147 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 318 compared to 544 at this time last year and 350 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 105% compared to 46% at September 15, 2021 and 49% at mid-month in October 2020.

Coquitlam – 162 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 117 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 140 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 159 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 160 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 151 compared to 189 at this point in September 2021, 149 at this point in August 2021, 106 at this point in July 2021 and 234 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 493 compared to 885 at this time last year and 573 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 107% compared to 62% at September 15, 2021 and 68% at mid-month in October 2020.

Port Moody – 36 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 36 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 29 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 55 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 54 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 39 compared to 57 at this point in September 2021, 36 at this point in August 2021, 47 at this point in July 2021 and 67 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 144 compared to 260 at this time last year and 164 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 92% compared to 63% at September 15, 2021 and 81% at mid-month in October 2020.

Port Coquitlam – 58 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 43 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 48 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 53 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 62 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 68 compared to 76 at this point in September 2021, 45 at this point in August 2021, 58 at this point in July 2021 and 83 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 152 compared to 249 at this time last year and 174 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 85% compared to 57% at September 15, 2021 and 75% at mid-month in October 2020.

Ladner – 14 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 20 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 14 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 14 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 24 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 24 compared to 23 at this point in September 2021, 16 at this point in August 2021, 16 at this point in July 2021 and 25 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 66 compared to 134 at this time last year and 62 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 58% compared to 87% at September 15, 2021 and 96% at mid-month in October 2020.

Tsawwassen – 31 units sold at mid-month in October 2021, compared to 28 at mid-month in September 2021, compared to 28 at mid-month in August 2021, compared to 31 units at mid-month in July 2021, and 37 sold at mid-month in October 2020. Total new listings so far in October are 39 compared to 39 at this point in September 2021, 28 at this point in August 2021, 39 at this point in July 2021 and 59 at this point in October 2020. Total active listings are at 133 compared to 312 at this time last year and 144 at mid-month in September 2021. Sales to listings ratio is at 79% compared to 72% at September 15, 2021 and 63% at mid-month in October 2020.