The state of the market from my friend Kevin Skipworth at Dexter Realty.
“ It’s not the load that breaks you down, it’s the way you carry it.”Lou Holtz
We made it through Halloween in the year 2020 – with a full moon, endless fireworks and turning back the clocks and with all that it was the real estate market that was the least scary in all this. In fact, the market continued to shake off the effects of the pandemic in October and went out dressed as a bull when so many thought it would be the bear. Throw in a provincial election and the United States Presidential Election as a potential distraction to home buyers and sellers – but they weren’t having any of it. The beat just carried on.
There were 3,787 properties sold of all types in Greater Vancouver in October this year compared with 3,741 sold last month, 2,892 sales in October last year and 1,995 sold in October 2018. It was the second highest amount of sales for the month of October on record in Greater Vancouver, second to 3,942 in 2003. Each month it seems that the end of this run gets forecasted but we’ve yet to see that happen. Of course, as we go through a typical year of market cycles, November, December and January see activity slow down.
While this hasn’t been a typical year, it is safe to assume we’ll see this trend playout for the next 3 months as we come off the highs we’ve experienced. This shouldn’t be surprising nor indicative of anything more. This extremely local and well-founded market has the strength of significant demand behind it. But the current pandemic conditions and economic weight from the pandemic may play into market activity, but as we’ve seen it can both pull and push the market. And it is interesting to note that total sales in Greater Vancouver so far in 2020 are just shy of the total sales in 2019 and have already surpassed total sales in 2018. This is much more than pent up demand from a Covid-19 shutdown in the spring.
Total sales in October were 36 per cent above the ten-year average for the month. Looking at the different types of properties, detached home sales were up 43 per cent year over year (77 per cent in September), townhouses up 45 per cent year over year (72 per cent in September), apartments up 13 per cent year over year (36 per cent in September). The number of sales in October last year was the highest by month for 2019 so not surprising to see the year over year increases less this October. Detached homes made up 35 per cent of all sales, while townhomes made up 21 per cent and apartments 41 (down from 44) per cent. Total active listings for apartments are up 31 per cent year over year (compared to 20 per cent at the end of September), and active listings for townhouse and detached homes are down 12 per cent and 20 per cent respectively year over year (compared to 9 and 21 per cent).
2020 Average Daily Listings and Sales in Greater Vancouver by Week:
First two weeks of March – 253 new listings, 138 sales
Last two weeks of March – 167 New Listings, 98 Sales
April – 120 new listings, 56 sales
May – 189 new listings, 75 sales
June – 274 new listings, 115 sales
July – 274 new listings, 147 sales
August – 299 new listings, 157 sales
September – 313 new listings, 176 sales
October 5 to 9 – 300 new listings, 169 sales
October 13 to 16 – 311 new listings, 186 sales
October 19 to 23 – 254 new listings, 206 sales
October 26 to 30 – 222 new listings, 167 sales
In October there was a significant decrease in the number of new listings compared to September. In fact it was the lowest amount by month since May of this year. The number of new listings in October were 24 per cent higher than the ten-year average for this month but with the decrease in new listings and continued demand from buyers, the total number of active listings in Greater Vancouver has dropped down to 12,797 at the start of November. This is compared to the peak this year of 13,790 at the end of September and 12,658 at the beginning of November 2019 in Greater Vancouver.
As we move through the last two months of 2020 – which can’t happen quick enough, the inventory of resale homes will continue to decline and we’ll start 2021 with another market short on supply. The residential market in Greater Vancouver currently has 3 month’s supply of homes for sale – indicative of a seller’s market. We are witnessing extreme seller’s markets in North Vancouver, areas of Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge and Ladner that have 2 month’s supply with their being only one month’s supply of townhomes in Port Moody, Port Coquitlam and Coquitlam. The number of active listings for downtown apartments continues to be high although the increase in new listings leveled off in October. There has been an increase in the number of rentals available downtown as well with monthly rents showing a decline.
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